683
FXUS62 KMHX 132232
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
632 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MEANDER
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
ENC.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 6:25 PM SATURDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
IS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ROUGHLY 225 NM SE
OF CAPE LOOKOUT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MEANDER A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE COAST
LATE, OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 60S
COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO A CUT-OFF LOW SUNDAY AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, THE DEVELOPING LOW
OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE MORE OF AN APPROACH TOWARD THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING BUT COULD SEE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 MPH INLAND AND 25-30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
-RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PICK UP NEXT WEEK
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE
NC COAST BUT THE LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY DIFFERS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING IT MORE VIGOROUSLY
THAN THE EC OR THE GFS. THE OTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF COMPLETELY AND REMAINING STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. MORE SOUTHERLY AND INLAND SOLUTIONS BRING MORE
RAIN TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
OFFSHORE SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES BUT SAFE TO SAY
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUITE A BIT FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THIS FEATURE WILL EITHER MOVE NORTHWARD OR REMAIN STATIONARY
BUT WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL
NEW LOW COMING OFF OF THE FL COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW TO
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST, MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
EVERYWHERE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 6:30 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HAVE BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND TOMORROW AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
WILL CAUSE BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE INLAND FROM
THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...PRED VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. A
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY BRING PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST KEEPING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT, AND SEAS 5-7 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
DIMINISHING A FEW KNOTS TONIGHT BUT THEY PICK BACK UP SUNDAY.
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TRACK OF THE LOW, SHOULD IT EVEN DEVELOP. SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER, WHICH MAY ALLOW SCA CONDITIONS
TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK,
WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DEPICT A STRONGER LOW THAT MAY YIELD
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. AS A RESULT, HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/OJC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...OJC/ZC
MARINE...SK/ZC
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