147
FXUS62 KMHX 141121
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
721 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST TOWARDS ENC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING MID-WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, WITH ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TODAY, DEPICTING A
COASTAL LOW DEEPENING 100 MILES, OR SO, SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT. WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OFFSHORE, THE FLOW OVER ENC
WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS PLUS
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL BY MID SEPTEMBER'S STANDARDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OFFSHORE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COASTAL LOW. GIVEN
THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOVEMENT WITH THE LOW, IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MAY CLIP THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
A COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT, EDGING CLOSER TO ENC, BUT LIKELY STILL REMAINING 100
MILES, OR SO, OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW EDGES CLOSER, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST (25-30 MPH). AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WELL, AND THIS MAY
SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY
EARLY THIS WEEK, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
A COASTAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS ENC
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED DEEPER AND FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW, GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH A 1005-1010MB LOW
MOVING THROUGH ENC. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT BELOW 1000MB.
REGARDLESS, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 25- 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THE NOTE HERE IS THAT IF THE DEEPER TREND CONTINUES,
THERE WOULD BE A BUMP UP IN THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS. FURTHER
INLAND, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT INLAND WITH THE LOW MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ON THE NW AND N SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH
RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY BEING ENHANCED WITH SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH A
LARGER THAN NORMAL GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST RISK OF 1"+ WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE OBX AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN EAST
OF HWY 17. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, BUT THE KEY MESSAGE IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
1-2"+ ALONG AND TO THE N/NW OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ENC HAS HAD
A VERY DRY START TO SEPTEMBER, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IF ANY AREA
SEES CONVECTION TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, WITH RATES OVERCOMING
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS TO BE ON MORE OF AN
ISOLATED BASIS, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE.
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS, IT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS, WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
TO WARM BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL. WARMING OF THE RESIDUALLY
MOIST AIRMASS MAY ALLOW A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW RETURNING ONCE AGAIN. YET AGAIN, ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THEN, BUT GUIDANCE ISN'T AS CLEAR ON THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN BY THEN.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS, MAY SEE SOME LOW-TO-MID
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, DURING
THE MORNING TODAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY IMPINGE UPON THE OBX LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (ROUGHLY FROM MRH UP TO HSE) ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE OBX. EXPECT ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE COAST TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE
ONSET TIMING OF PRECIP AND ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THUS, WILL
CARRY A VFR TAF AS OF THIS CYCLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE) BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY PREVAIL OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM.
- SCAS RAISED FOR INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS BEGINNING 11 UTC
SUNDAY MORNING
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AND GUSTS OVERPERFORMING
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S GUIDANCE, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ONGOING ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET. NBM WINDS AND PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE
UNDER-DOING WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BETTER CAPTURING ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS ALSO MORE BULLISH ON WINDS AND GUSTS TODAY, WITH THE
00Z HREF AND REFS INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING (00Z HREF DEPICTS 70-90% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED SCA
CRITERIA FOR THE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND ABLEMARLE, CROATAN, AND
ROANOKE SOUNDS AND A 40-70% CHANCE FOR SCA GUSTS FOR THE NEUSE
AND PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS). THUS, HAVE TO START THE NEW SCAS FOR
THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING AT 11 UTC.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY)...
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS GENERALLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25-30 KT, AND SEAS 5-8 FT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TODAY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
COASTAL LOW AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS STRENGTHENING
LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY TO 20-25 KNOTS
(GUSTS 25-30 KTS) ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS,
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 6-8 FEET (POTENTIAL FOR SOME 9 FOOTERS TO
CREEP IN SOUTH OF OREGON INLET). SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON THE INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND SHOWS SCA
CONDITIONS EXPANDING INTO THE REMAINING INLAND RIVERS AND
SOUNDS. CURRENTLY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN INLAND RIVERS/SOUNDS
REACHING SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY. AS SUCH, SCAS HAVE BEEN HOISTED
FOR THE RIVERS/SOUNDS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT THE START OF THESE NEW SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
PULLED FORWARD TO THIS MORNING IF WINDS FOLLOW HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COASTLINE TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS ENC BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED
BETWEEN THIS COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST,
ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED SCAS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCLUDE
THE REMAINING INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE BULLISH SIDE FOR WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY, INDICATING A ROUGHLY 40-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND ON MONDAY. UPGRADES TO GALE WARNINGS FOR MONDAY
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL LOW. MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS (GUSTS OF 15-20) AND WAVES
SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FEET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135>137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ230-231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
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