411
FXUS62 KMHX 142017
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
417 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST TOWARDS ENC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING MID-WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, WITH ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SE OF THE NC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER A DREARY MORNING FOR MOST, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED INLAND, MAKING FOR A DECENT DAY, AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S HERE. CLOSER TO THE COAST (US 17 AND
EAST), CLOUDY SKIES HAVE REMAINED, AS WELL AS A STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW 70S. AND FINALLY, ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND UP THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS, PERIODS OF RAIN
HAVE PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE LOW SITS OVER THIS REGION.
TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST, TEMPORARILY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASES
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY, AND WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, LOWS COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S. MILD
CONDITIONS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME IMPACTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NC COAST
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS (25-35 MPH INLAND, AND
35-45 MPH COAST), PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
(SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS)
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE NC COAST TOMORROW
AND SLOWLY DEEPEN. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE, WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT
SOME PARTS OF DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOUD CANOPY, COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN, AND TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS INLAND WILL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30-35 MPH, WHILE ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT INLAND WITH THE LOW MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ON THE NW AND N SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH RAINFALL RATES
AND AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY BEING ENHANCED WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH A LARGER THAN NORMAL
GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GREATEST RISK OF 1"+ WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE OBX AND
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF HWY 17. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT THE KEY MESSAGE IS THAT THERE
IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR 1-2"+ ALONG AND TO THE N/NW OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. ENC HAS HAD A VERY DRY START TO SEPTEMBER, AND THIS SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IF ANY
AREA SEES CONVECTION TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, WITH RATES OVERCOMING
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS TO BE ON MORE OF AN
ISOLATED BASIS, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S THURSDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW RETURNING ONCE AGAIN. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT COULD SEE PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, BUT GUIDANCE ISN'T AS CLEAR ON THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN BY THEN. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, THOUGH SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SYSTEM PRODUCING THESE CLOUDS, A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST, WILL MEANDER
CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
WESTWARD, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 2000 FT
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 1000-2000 FT BY LATE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS OVER THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING,
THEN LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (>80%) MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN 50-75% TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KT INLAND AND 30-35 KT ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE. THE LOW
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS NOT AS GUSTY BUT COULD
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM.
- GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR ALL BUT INLAND RIVERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. 12Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE HAS COME IN STRONGER
WITH THE WINDS AND NOW EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ONSHORE
TUESDAY AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AND STALLING ACROSS ENC,
WHICH WILL BRING SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO FILL. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5-8 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 6-12
FT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS NEARSHORE ONSLOW BAY
WERE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS SUBDUES A BIT AT AROUND 3-5
FT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TO AROUND
3-6 FT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO 10-20 KT AS THE SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL. SEAS AROUND 3-6 FT TUESDAY EVENING EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS BRINGING COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS FOR OCEAN OVERWASH
AS WELL AS PAMLICO, SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND EASTERN CARTERET
COUNTIES FOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING.
LARGE SEAS PRESENTLY AROUND 7-8 FT OFF OF HATTERAS ISLAND IS
BRINGING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT THE BUXTON MOTELS WITH THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, AS SEEN ON NCDOT WEBCAMS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY TO AROUND 10FT+ AND
EXPECT OVERWASH TO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AT VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS ON HATTERAS ISLAND, ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE. THE
NEXT FEW HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND 2 AM TONIGHT, 3 PM
MONDAY AND 3 AM MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR WHEN WINDS AND SEAS ARE AT THEIR PEAK AND COULD BE THE
MOST IMPACTFUL TIME FOR OVERWASH. THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE IS
ALSO VULNERABLE TO OCEAN OVERWASH BUT WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE
AND NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE OVERWASH WILL OCCUR HERE BUT HAVE INCLUDED IN
THE CFA DUE TO ITS VULNERABILITY.
NNE WINDS AROUND 25-35 KT WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ALONG THE
NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS AND CORE BANKS WHERE WATER LEVELS COULD
REACH 1-2 FT ABOVE GROUND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM..RM/SK
AVIATION...SGK/SK
MARINE...SGK/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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