067
FXUS62 KMHX 152315
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE
INLAND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN MID-WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, WITH ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN,
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, AND COASTAL IMPACTS
- A WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST HAS GRADUALLY BEGUN TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING INCHING CLOSER TO ENC. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A BEVY OF
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS ENC, WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.
STRONG WINDS
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX, AND WINDS HAVE
OVER PERFORMED SO FAR TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MOSTLY 35-45
MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH. EXPECT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE OBX INTO THIS TONIGHT, WITH AN ABRUPT END
TO THE STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND STRONG WINDS OF 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CONTINUE. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN RESTRENGTHEN OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW AT 20-30 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PIVOT NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. MEANWHILE,
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY RAPID MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.50-1.75". THE DEEPENING LAYER OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE WEST, NW, AND NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW, THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD MANAGE TO GET PULLED NW INTO AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF ENC, SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN
THE BROADER STRATIFORM RAIN AREA. WHERE THESE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MATERIALIZE, RAINFALL RATES OF 1"/HR APPEAR PLAUSIBLE.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE, AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5-8
INCHES DUE TO THE SLOW ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF RAINBANDS. WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF ENC, EXCEPT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK, THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS EDGING INLAND ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
LOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL RISK OF TORNADOES. IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF 1000J/KG+ CAPE AND 100-150+
M2/S2 SRH WILL BE FOCUSED FROM OCRACOKE/HATTERAS ISLANDS NORTH
THROUGH MAINLAND HYDE/DARE COUNTIES AND TYRELL COUNTY. THIS TYPE
OF SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SHORT-LIVED, WEAK TORNADOES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN VA TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN MAY
PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF US 264, BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US 70 WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE, WHILE FARTHER NORTH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, AND LIFT OFF TO THE NE. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S THURSDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW RETURNING ONCE AGAIN. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT COULD SEE PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, BUT GUIDANCE ISN'T AS CLEAR ON THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN BY THEN. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM MON...CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF ENC OUTSIDE OF THE OBX WHERE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST HAS BEGUN TO INCH CLOSER TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY, VFR CONDITIONS WONT LAST LONG TONIGHT
AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND TOMORROW MORNING WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALSO MOVING INTO ENC TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND QUICKLY LOWERING CLOUD
DECKS TONIGHT ACROSS ENC. HAVE ELECTED TO GO SLIGHTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC ON THE CEILING FORECAST, HOLING OFF ON MVFR CEILINGS
FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE OBX.
EITHER WAY THEN EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER FURTHER AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TO IFR AND REMAIN IFR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET. GIVEN THIS HAVE IFR CEILINGS UNTIL
ABOUT 18-21Z AND THEN A SCT DECK OF IFR WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER CLOUDS,
EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS WELL LIKELY MAXING
OUT AFTER ABOUT 03Z AND PERSISTING INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.
FINALLY, STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW, WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30-50 MPH POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST). ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE LLWS
CONCERNS ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR WEST AS KEWN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM.
- GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BUT INLAND RIVERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS ARE N/NNE AT 25-35 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, WITH AN ABRUPT WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREAS, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
VARY WIDELY BASED ON LOCATION WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW LIKELY
PASSING THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 25 KTS. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL MOSTLY TURN TO
THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AT 15-25 KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 8-12 FT, AND COULD INCREASE A COUPLE MORE FEET
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING SEAS
WILL BE 6-9 FT, AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM
MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO 10-20 KT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL. SEAS AROUND 3-6 FT TUESDAY EVENING EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM MON...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS BRINGING COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS FOR OCEAN OVERWASH
AS WELL AS PAMLICO, SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND EASTERN CARTERET
COUNTIES FOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING.
LARGE SEAS PRESENTLY AROUND 8-12 FT OFF OF HATTERAS ISLAND IS
BRINGING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT THE BUXTON MOTELS WITH THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, AS SEEN ON NCDOT WEBCAMS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING AND EXPECT OVERWASH TO CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN AT VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ON HATTERAS ISLAND,
ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE. THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE IS ALSO
VULNERABLE TO OCEAN OVERWASH BUT WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NEAR
SHORE SEAS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE OVERWASH WILL OCCUR HERE BUT HAVE INCLUDED IN
THE CFA DUE TO ITS VULNERABILITY.
NNE WINDS AROUND 25-35 KT WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ALONG THE
NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS AND CORE BANKS WHERE WATER LEVELS COULD
REACH 1-2 FT ABOVE GROUND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ094-193>196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RCF
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RCF/ZC
MARINE...SGK/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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