271
FXUS62 KMHX 160706
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE
ALONG, OR JUST INLAND, OF THE NC/VA COAST TODAY. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, WITH ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC WITH GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, AND COASTAL IMPACTS TODAY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS, A COASTAL
LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 75-100 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING. THE MOTION OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR SLIGHTLY
WEST OF DUE NORTH. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE
WITH A LOT OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN NOW,
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO FULLY GRASP THE LOCATION AND
MOTION OF THE LOW. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE LOW IS
NOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY N OR NNW ALONG THE OBX,
THEN POTENTIALLY MOVE INLAND NEAR/NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS IT POTENTIALLY STALLS AROUND THE VA/NC BORDER
TONIGHT. KEEPING IN MIND THE CONTINUED MODEL STRUGGLES, AND A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK,
BELOW IS WHAT THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.
OCCASIONAL PULSES OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW SINCE LAST NIGHT, BUT MOST OF THIS HAS
REMAINED OFFSHORE. EVEN IF THE LOW PARALLELS THE NC COAST, IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT SOME OF THE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE PULSES MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE OBX,
ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH THROUGH DUCK AND THE AREAS
SURROUNDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WHILE HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH, THERE IS STILL A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR SOME INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR. BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER, HYDRO
ISSUES WILL PROBABLY TEND TO BE MORE CONFINED TO SMALLER AREAS
WITHIN THE LARGER WATCH AREA. FOR NOW THE WATCH AREA STILL
APPEARS TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN, BUT WE MAY BEGIN TO TRIM BACK PARTS OF THE
WATCH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END, IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE PEAK IN WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
INTO FAR NE NC / SE VA AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OBX HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNRISE THIS
MORNING (MAINLY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH), BUT A GENERAL
DECREASING TREND APPEARS LIKELY.
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THERE APPEARS TO BE A
REDUCED RISK OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVERLAPPING WITH THE BETTER
LOW- LEVEL SRH. WHILE ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD HELP
MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS, THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
THE COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ALONG, OR JUST
INLAND, OF THE NC/VA COAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS, BUT THE RISK
OF INTENSE RAINFALL AND FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
FORCING WEAKENS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE-WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COASTAL LOW, ENC SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
AS WESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ENSUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALSO HELP SUPPORT
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BY THIS WEEKEND, A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER FRONT DIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL AS ENC GETS BACK INTO A COOLER,
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SIGNAL ISN'T
ALL THAT STRONG FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF ENC OUTSIDE OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG
THE OBX. HAVE NOTED TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AT
TAF SITES WHEN SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED THROUGH AND BROUGHT VIS
AND/OR CEILING REDUCTIONS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING FLIGHT CATS DEGRADING TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR TONIGHT FOR TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE COAST, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR
HANDLING OF CEILINGS BY GUIDANCE THUS FAR THROUGH THE EVENT.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (WITH A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER) WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BUILDING WESTWARD BY 12 UTC.
HAVE OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE ONSET TIME OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO
BUILD INLAND, WHICH DOES SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL DROP TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SUB-VFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING, POTENTIAL LIFTING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF THIS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS OF OAJ/EWN,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO IFR TUESDAY NIGHT. LASTLY, STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE LOW, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LLWS
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE OBX TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS.
LONG TERM /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM, WITH WINDS
AND WAVES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE AS OF 230 AM ACROSS AREA WATERS WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. N/NW WINDS AT 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS, BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO, CROATAN, ROANOKE, AND ABLEMARLE
SOUNDS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES FOR
THESE AREAS AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY
PUSHES INLAND.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREAS, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY
WIDELY BASED ON LOCATION WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW LIKELY PASSING
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 25
KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST AT 15-25 KTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE LOW.
SEAS ARE UP TO 8-12 FT AND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SEAS TO DECREASE TO 5-8 FT TONIGHT AND
FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FEET WEDNESDAY.
MARINE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH TODAY BEHIND THE LOW AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET BY THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AROUND
10 KNOTS. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
A MODESTLY STRONG COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ABOUT
50-100 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WHILE WEAKENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST, THEN WEST, WHILE DECREASING.
SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN FROM THE
EARLIER HIGH WITH LAST NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. MEANWHILE, OCEANSIDE
WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH
TIDE, THANKS TO THE CONTINUED NOTABLE SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 12
SECONDS.
BECAUSE THE LONG-PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO OVERPERFORM WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY OUT
THROUGH 8AM THIS MORNING. IF THE SWELL TAKES LONGER TO COME
DOWN, THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES
MAY LAST LONGER. FOR THE VULNERABLE AREAS OF THE OBX, EACH HIGH
TIDE MAY BRING A CONTINUED RISK OF 1-2 FT AGL OF INUNDATION,
WITH CONTINUED IMPACTS ALONG PORTIONS OF HWY 12.
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX, THE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASE FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ094-194-196.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ094-193>196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203>205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150-152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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