834
FXUS62 KMHX 161746
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
146 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH,
WITH ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH EVENING.
FINALLY SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER OUR AREA AS THE COASTAL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING US, IS NOW MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINED OFF THE COAST
SINCE THIS MORNING, IT WASN'T UNTIL THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT THE
WIND FINALLY DIED DOWN. LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1 PM
BASED ON LAND OBSERVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH GUST
RANGE. DUCK PIER IS STILL BLOWING HARD BUT THAT IS HANDLED WELL
BY OUR GALE WARNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS SETTLED IN. WITH TEMPS EITHER SIDE
OF 70, IT FEELS MORE LIKE LATE OCTOBER THAN MID SEPTEMBER.
CLOUDS HANG TOUGH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME PATCHY
SPRINKLES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
QUIET WITH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO
PULL NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. LOW CLOUDS STILL LOOK TO LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OR GENERALLY AROUND 60 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE-WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COASTAL LOW, ENC SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
AS WESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ENSUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALSO HELP SUPPORT
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BY THIS WEEKEND, A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER FRONT DIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL AS ENC GETS BACK INTO A COOLER,
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SIGNAL ISN'T
ALL THAT STRONG FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LONG TERM PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS NOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE
MAY SEE A SLIGHT LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING, BUT ANY PERIODS OF VFR WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED, WITH A RETURN TO MVFR EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
TOO LOW OF CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS OUTSIDE OF PGV AT
THE MOMENT.
WE MAY SEE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR, BUT THAT
ISN'T LIKELY UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z, IF NOT LATER.
LONG TERM /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM, WITH
WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LESSEN TOWARD EVENING.
- GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF NORTH OF OREGON
INLET.
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT US ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
THE PAST 24 HOURS, IS SLOWING MOVING NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME DOWN BUT ARE FINALLY SHOWING A
DIMINISHING TREND. THIS DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD BE QUITE
DRAMATIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
25 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, OUTSIDE OF NORTH OF OREGON
INLET. THE SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE, WITH BUOYS STILL
SHOWING OVER 10 KT EAST OF DUCK.
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BACK
TOWARD THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS UNDER 20 KTS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET BY THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AROUND
10 KNOTS. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
A MODESTLY STRONG COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ABOUT
50-100 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WHILE WEAKENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST, THEN WEST, WHILE DECREASING.
SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN FROM THE
EARLIER HIGH WITH LAST NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. MEANWHILE, OCEANSIDE
WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH
TIDE, THANKS TO THE CONTINUED NOTABLE SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 12
SECONDS.
BECAUSE THE LONG-PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO OVERPERFORM WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY OUT
THROUGH 8AM THIS MORNING. IF THE SWELL TAKES LONGER TO COME
DOWN, THE POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES
MAY LAST LONGER. FOR THE VULNERABLE AREAS OF THE OBX, EACH HIGH
TIDE MAY BRING A CONTINUED RISK OF 1-2 FT AGL OF INUNDATION,
WITH CONTINUED IMPACTS ALONG PORTIONS OF HWY 12.
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX, THE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASE FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
135-230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...EH/ZC
MARINE...ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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