598
FXUS62 KMHX 170206
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH,
WITH ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLIDE N'WARDS AWAY FROM ENC THIS
EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO EASE AS WE GO THROUGH
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FILTERS INTO THE AREA BUT THIS
SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW IN BETWEEN.
PREV DISC...FINALLY SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER OUR AREA AS
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING US, IS NOW MOVING NORTH
TOWARD THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
REMAINED OFF THE COAST SINCE THIS MORNING, IT WASN'T UNTIL THE
PAST FEW HOURS THAT THE WIND FINALLY DIED DOWN. LET THE WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1 PM BASED ON LAND OBSERVATIONS MAINLY IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH GUST RANGE. DUCK PIER IS STILL BLOWING HARD BUT
THAT IS HANDLED WELL BY OUR GALE WARNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COASTAL LOW, A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS SETTLED IN. WITH
TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 70, IT FEELS MORE LIKE LATE OCTOBER THAN
MID SEPTEMBER. CLOUDS HANG TOUGH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
SOME PATCHY SPRINKLES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
QUIET WITH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO
PULL NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. LOW CLOUDS STILL LOOK TO LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OR GENERALLY AROUND 60 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE-WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COASTAL LOW, ENC SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
AS WESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ENSUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALSO HELP SUPPORT
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BY THIS WEEKEND, A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER FRONT DIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL AS ENC GETS BACK INTO A COOLER,
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SIGNAL ISN'T
ALL THAT STRONG FOR NOW.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...GIVEN HOW GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THE
AVIATION FORECAST THESE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO, A SNEAKILY
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IS ON TAP TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM ENC WITH LOW
AND MID CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. SEEING MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ENC AS OF
THIS UPDATE WITH IFR CEILINGS LOCATED ALONG OUR NW'RN ZONES.
THOUGH AS SOME DRIER AIR HAS SNUCK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES,
SOME VFR CEILINGS AT ABOUT 2,5-3.5 KFT AT THE OAJ TERMINAL.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
WITH MVFR CEILINGS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
EVENING WITH CEILINGS SITTING ABOUT 1.5-2.5 KFT TONIGHT. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT PGV AND POINTS NORTH AFTER
06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL THAT THIS OCCURS SO
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN AT PGV TO COVER FOR THIS. THESE LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO WED MORNING BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT
WED AFTERNOON TO VFR LEVELS. AS A RESULT HAVE ALL TERMINALS AT
MVFR BY 03Z AND REMAINING THAT WAY UNTIL 18Z WED. WILL NOTE THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND COULD SEE VFR CEILINGS
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT PGV WHICH IS
CLOSEST TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ENC TONIGHT.
SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. OTHERWISE 5-10 KT NW'RLY WINDS WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 15KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WED.
LONG TERM /06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT TERM, WITH
WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LESSEN TOWARD EVENING.
- ALL GALES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN AND SMALL CRAFTS HAVE ALSO
BEEN TAKEN DOWN EVERYWHERE BUT THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS.
BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS
BEEN THE DECREASE IN THE WINDS. AS A RESULT ALL GALE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN AND MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFTS THAT WERE UP
ACROSS OUR WATERS HAVE ALSO BEEN TAKEN DOWN. THE LONE EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE 4-7 FT
SEAS AND 20-25 KT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE STILL OCCURING.
HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY BE TAKEN DOWN BY 5AM AT THE LATEST
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE FORECAST.
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT US ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
THE PAST 24 HOURS, IS SLOWING MOVING NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME DOWN BUT ARE FINALLY SHOWING A
DIMINISHING TREND. THIS DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD BE QUITE
DRAMATIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
25 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, OUTSIDE OF NORTH OF OREGON
INLET. THE SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE, WITH BUOYS STILL
SHOWING OVER 10 KT EAST OF DUCK.
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BACK
TOWARD THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS UNDER 20 KTS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET BY THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AROUND
10 KNOTS. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY BEGUN TO
IMPROVE AND AFTER SOME MODEST WATER LEVEL RISES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH UP TO 1 FT AGL OF INUNDATION NOTED NORTH OF OCRACOKE
ISLAND, WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE STEADILY IN THE
COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES AS WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS LAY DOWN. AS
A RESULT, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ACROSS HATTERAS ISLAND UP
TO DUCK HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS IMPACTS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED TO THE NORTH CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY FROM ENC.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH/RCF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RCF/ZC
MARINE...RCF/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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