595
FXUS62 KMHX 171143
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COASTAL LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY, THEN
MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND STALL OFFSHORE. A COASTAL TROUGH OR COASTAL LOW MAY
THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
THE COASTAL LOW THAT PLAGUED PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION
THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND THE NC/VA
BORDER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS
SOCKED IN ACROSS MUCH OF ENC TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 WHERE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW
CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT QUICKER. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR, LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SETUP A TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 70 STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
60S, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDCOVER IS THE MOST PERSISTENT.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS NORTH OF HWY 70 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PIVOTS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE WEAKENING COASTAL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE MORE DECIDEDLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, WEAKENING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES MAY SUPPORT A FOG RISK ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE QUICKEST. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE RISK OF DENSE FOG IS LOW (<20% CHANCE), BUT THE PATTERN
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY, DENSE FOG, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE RISK WERE TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHERE
CLOUDS CLEAR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT WEEK
AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS AFTER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEK'S COASTAL LOW, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BRIEFLY FLIP TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. IN FACT, THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED STRETCH OF
MILDER FALL WEATHER. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW, MOISTURE RETURN DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLIP BACK TO THE PATTERN WE ARE JUST NOW COMING OUT
OF, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND A LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THE RETURN OF
A MILDER NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS. IF A
COASTAL LOW WERE TO DEVELOP, THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A MODEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY ON, BUT A LOT OF
THIS MAY BE TIED TO WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER LOW FORMS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RETURN OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S
AND LOW 80S, WHICH IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING UNDER OVERCAST SKIES WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 500-2500 FT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW
CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND MOST TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS, BUT GIVEN ONGOING OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, HAVE OPTED FOR
A MORE OPTIMISTIC TIMELINE ON CEILINGS RISING TO MVFR AND VFR
LEVELS THIS MORNING. EXPECTATION IS FOR CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, EXCEPT FOR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE NORTHERN OBX, WHERE LOWER
CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO LINGER LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT (5-10 KT) FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP NEAR 15 KTS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4-6 KFT LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS
AND/OR PATCHY FOG TO BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN POOR PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ONSET TIME, HAVE NOT
YET INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR/IFR GROUPS.
LONG TERM /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRED VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- LAST REMAINING SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT.
WAVES HAVE FALLEN TO 3-5 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS OF 5 AM
WEDNESDAY. THUS, HAVE ALLOWED THE LAST REMAINING SCAS FOR AREA
WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT US ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THE PAST 24 HOURS, IS MEANDERING AROUND
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN VIRGINIA. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS ENC AS THE LOW PULLED NORTHWARD
EARLIER TODAY, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS REMAINING ACROSS
AREA WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-5 FT, BUT SOME 6-7 FOOTERS ARE
LINGERING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. THUS, WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SCAS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL THEN BE MUCH IMPROVED
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT TODAY, BECOMING 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF A NORTHWESTERLY
SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2-3 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND THE NEXT
ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A NORTHWESTERLY SURGE BEHIND
THIS FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
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