984
FXUS62 KMHX 171919
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND STALL
OFFSHORE. A COASTAL TROUGH OR COASTAL LOW MAY THEN DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY
- LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THE COASTAL LOW THAT PLAGUED PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
CLOUDS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ENC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLEARING TO THE SOUTH HAS ALLOWED HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOW 80S. FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS ARE NEAR 70F.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES MAY
SUPPORT A FOG AND LOW STRATUS RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CALM
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RISK
OF DENSE, IMPACTFUL FOG IS LOW (<=20% CHANCE), BUT THE PATTERN
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY, DENSE FOG (LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
LOWERING STRATUS), AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE
THE RISK WERE TO INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF
THE NEXT WEEK AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS AFTER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET DAY IN STORE, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE WITH LOW MOVING AWAY AND HIGH TRYING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST RESULTS IN LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIRES UP IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS TO THE LOW
TO MID 80S INLAND, UPPER 70S FOR BEACHES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEK'S COASTAL LOW, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BRIEFLY FLIP TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. IN FACT, THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED STRETCH OF
MILDER FALL WEATHER. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW, MOISTURE RETURN DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLIP BACK TO THE PATTERN WE ARE JUST NOW COMING OUT
OF, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND A LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THE RETURN OF
A MILDER NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS. IF A
COASTAL LOW WERE TO DEVELOP, THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A MODEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY ON, BUT A LOT OF
THIS MAY BE TIED TO WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER LOW FORMS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RETURN OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S
AND LOW 80S, WHICH IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE PAMLICO RIVER WHERE LINGERING LOW STRATUS
FROM THE RETREATING LOW BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS. AS LOW IS SLOW TO
MOVE AWAY, EXPECT ON AND OFF MVFR TO CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ENC THROUGH THE DAY. LOW- LEVELS LOOK TO DECOUPLE
TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, ESPECIALLY INLAND. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TO BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO INLAND TERMINALS, STEADILY DECREASING AS YOU
APPROACH THE COAST. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS LOW STRATUS BUILDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND LOWERS DOWN TO THE GROUND BRINGING PATCHY
MIST/FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK.
TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH TAFS FOR TONIGHT, BUT WITH POOR
PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE AS OF LATE, ELECTED TO KEEP IFR
CONDITIONS OUT OF TAFS FOR ISO, EWN, AND OAJ. PGV HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO REACH IFR, SO INCLUDED BKN007 IN THE TAFS FOR
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRED VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS ENC
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS
REMAINING ACROSS AREA WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT, WINDS CONTINUE TO LESSEN TO 5-10KTS OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY, WINDS START OFF OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AT 5-10 KNOTS BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE APPROACH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH WAVES DROPPING TO 1-3 FT AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF A NORTHWESTERLY
SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2-3 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND THE NEXT
ROUND OF SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A NORTHWESTERLY SURGE BEHIND
THIS FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RJ/ZC
MARINE...RJ/ZC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page