118
FXUS62 KMHX 180743
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND STALL
OFFSHORE. A COASTAL TROUGH OR COASTAL LOW MAY THEN DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0300 THURSDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW,
WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
FOG AND LOW STRATUS RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CALM CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RISK OF DENSE,
IMPACTFUL FOG IS LOW (<=20% CHANCE), BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF SINKING STRATUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. KEPT
PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR EARLY MORNING. MINTS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS AFTER
TONIGHT.
WEAKNESS IN LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOW MOVING AWAY AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH THAT
CROSSED THROUGH YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT LEADS TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CRYSTAL COAST SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION BECOMING THE DOMINANT WIND FEATURE IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVELING THROUGH THE WEAK JET OF
THE UPWARD LEG OF THE TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE COAST. DIURNAL CU
FIELD DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON. MAXTS MID 80S SWERN INLAND
ZONES, MID TO UPPER 70S BEACHES AND NEERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0300 THURSDAY...BIT OF A COL LOCALLY AS WE LIE UNDERNEATH
DEPARTING JET ALOFT, RIDGING OVER GREAT LAKES, AND LOCALLY HIGH
SFC PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC BY THE
AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE WILL OPEN DOOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
THE RAD COOLING AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT FOG TO SHOW UP FIRST
ALONG THE WHY17 CORRIDOR AND THEN EXPAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MINTS IN LOW TO MID 60S MOST, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BEACHES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
NEXT WEEK
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN GET KICKED OUT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THAT TROUGH
AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST BY
SATURDAY AS A MORE NOTABLE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF ENC BY THIS WEEKEND. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL SETUP A MODESTLY
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A BRIEF DROP
BACK DOWN AFTER THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TO SHIFT NORTH
IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF ENC. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
IS STILL PRESENT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLY
WEAKER TREND SEEN. THE PATTERN STILL BEARS WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW AT
LEAST, THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS A WEAKER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH. IN
FACT, IT MAY BE MORE OF AN INLAND-ADVANCING COASTAL TROUGH VS A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. EITHER WAY, AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVERLAPPED WITH THE TROUGH OR LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE POINT OF CONTENTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED AROUND
THE DEVELOPMENT, AND EVOLUTION, OF A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TYPICALLY CARRIES LOWER PREDICTABILITY
AT LONGER RANGES. FOR NOW, THEN, A BLENDED GUIDANCE APPROACH
SUGGESTS WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0115 THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER SE VA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE NE. LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING IFR/LIFR
FLIGHT CATS ACROSS MOST RTES. HREF PROBS HIGHEST (60-80%) NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 70, TAPERING DOWN FROM 50 TO 20% ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR MID- MORNING WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT HOLDS GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RISK
OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH OR WEAK COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY. THIS
SETUP ALSO CARRIES A RISK OF SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA
(ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS).
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0315 THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY W/NWERLY WINDS 5-10G15KT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RELAXING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS LOW
DEPARTS TO NE. WINDS FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF LOOKOUT BECOME
SERLY BY AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD, BUT
STILL REMAIN AOB 12KT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE BOARD. AS A RESULT, SEAS CONTINUE TO LAY DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BUOY OBS CURRENTLY SHOWING 2-4FT OUT OF THE NE @
9-10SEC WITH 1-2FT WIND CHOP MIXED IN OVER THE TOP. SWELL FROM
NE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH SEAS BECOMING 2-3FT
EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET AND CONTINUING TO EASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENC WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25KT WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH, BUT
PERSISTENT, AND BUILDING, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8FT, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 8-10FT SEAS DURING THIS TIME,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CONTRAFLOW AGAINST THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB
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