283
FXUS62 KMHX 181906
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND STALL
OFFSHORE. A COASTAL TROUGH OR COASTAL LOW MAY THEN DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LOW STRATUS LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF ENC
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR SW TO NE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. WEAKNESS IN LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH THE CRYSTAL COAST SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION THE DOMINANT WIND FEATURE. MAXTS LOW 80S SWERN
INLAND ZONES, MID TO UPPER 70S BEACHES AND NEERN ZONES THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT WILL BRING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC BY THE AFTERNOON'S
SEABREEZE WILL OPEN DOOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE RAD
COOLING AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT FOG TO SHOW UP FIRST ALONG THE
HWY17 CORRIDOR AND THEN EXPAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MINTS IN
LOW TO MID 60S MOST, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BEACHES. FOG COULD BE
DENSE AT TIMES, IMPACTING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...FOG INLAND TO START THE DAY, SCOURING
OUT MID MORNING. ANOTHER DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY COMING
OUT OF THE EAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW IT TO GET PRETTY WARM FOR ALL LOCALES, HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW 80S FOR BEACHES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
NEXT WEEK
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN GET KICKED OUT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THAT TROUGH
AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST BY
SATURDAY AS A MORE NOTABLE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF ENC BY THIS WEEKEND. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL SETUP A MODESTLY
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A BRIEF DROP
BACK DOWN AFTER THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TO SHIFT NORTH
IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF ENC. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
IS STILL PRESENT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLY
WEAKER TREND SEEN. THE PATTERN STILL BEARS WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW AT
LEAST, THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS A WEAKER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH. IN
FACT, IT MAY BE MORE OF AN INLAND-ADVANCING COASTAL TROUGH VS A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. EITHER WAY, AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVERLAPPED WITH THE TROUGH OR LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE POINT OF CONTENTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED AROUND
THE DEVELOPMENT, AND EVOLUTION, OF A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TYPICALLY CARRIES LOWER PREDICTABILITY
AT LONGER RANGES. FOR NOW, THEN, A BLENDED GUIDANCE APPROACH
SUGGESTS WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WHERE LOW
STRATUS DECK LINGERS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS SCT/BKN
STRATOCU LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT. TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR UP AND WINDS
BECOME CALM, LEADING TO A FOG THREAT FOR ALL TERMINALS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT VIS TO START DROPPING AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COS, BEFORE
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST TO MUCH OF ENC. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. FOG AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM
OR LESS. TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE, BUT THERE IS ROOM TO GO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
EVENING'S UPDATE SHOULD THE CURRENT TREND OF GUIDANCE HOLD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIGNAL FOR FOG SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE
HIGHER THAN THAT OF FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH OR WEAK
COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE COAST WITH BETTER
MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY. THIS SETUP ALSO CARRIES A RISK
OF SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA (ESPECIALLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS).
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE BOARD. AS A RESULT, SEAS CONTINUE TO LAY DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BUOY OBS CURRENTLY SHOWING 1-3FT OUT OF THE E @
9-10SEC WITH MINIMAL WIND CHOP MIXED IN OVER THE TOP. SWELL
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH SEAS BECOMING 1-2FT WITH 3 FT
NEAR THE GULF STREAM BY SUNSET AND CONTINUING TO EASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH
LIGHT WINDS, WAVES 1-3 FT, AND CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENC WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25KT WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH, BUT
PERSISTENT, AND BUILDING, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8FT, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 8-10FT SEAS DURING THIS TIME,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CONTRAFLOW AGAINST THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ
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