412
FXUS62 KMHX 051100
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO ENC INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK INCREASING CHANCES AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KING TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED WITH AM UPDATE.
PREV DISC... AS OF 3 AM SUN...ANY MORNING DENSE FOG IS FORECAST
TO ERODE THIS MORNING WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE WITH
YET ANOTHER WARM FALL DAY ON TAP. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO
THE CAROLINAS BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT E'RLY WINDS TO THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX, WHICH IS ONLY SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SCT TO BKN 4-5K
CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...ANOTHER THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG AS WX PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT. CALM TO LIGHT ERLY FLOW
WILL CONT OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S INTERIOR TO LOW/MID
60S COAST. ATTM, THE BEST BET FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE NWRN
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, WHERE HREF PROBS FOR VSBY <= 1/2 MILE
ARE 40-60%.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. INSTABILITY IS LACKING, BUT THE STRONG FORCING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NE WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS (IF
MATERIALIZED) PAIRED WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SUBSTANTIAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FORMATION, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...PERIODS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KPGV. OTHER TERMINALS LIKELY TO
SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS. FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. SKIES WILL BE SCT/BKN
TODAY WITH CLOUD DECKS OF 4-5K FT AS SOME STRATO CU WORKS IT'S
WAY WWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. ATTM, BEST CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE FOR KPGV, WHERE PROBS FOR 1/2 MI OR LESS ARE
40-60%.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. E WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM, TEMPORARILY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 7A FOR ALL BUT
CENTRAL LEG OF COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FT.
PREV DISC...AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...BENIGN WIND FIELD IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
PROMOTING NE-E'RLY WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. SEAS CONTINUE LESSENING,
CURRENTLY 3-5 FT EXCEPT FOR SOME 6 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
WILL LIKELY END SCAS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR CAPE
HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE AT 7AM THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE
DECREASING SEAS. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN VEERS TO SE TUESDAY PM. GULF STREAM COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME 6 FOOTERS THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WAVES BECOME 5 FT OR LESS
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BELOW 6FT
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AS BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH
MORE PLEASANT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
AHEAD OF IT, AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR
MOST MARINE ZONES. IF THE FCST TRENDS HIGHER, WE WOULD BE
REACHING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY (10/7) TO
SATURDAY (10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING
TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL
VULNERABLE LOW LYING LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG NE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP
PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS, BUT SHOULD THEY MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST, OR GREATER, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES
COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE
STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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