337
FXUS62 KMHX 052347
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
747 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO ENC THROUGH
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING CHANCES AT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KING TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM SUN...WARM FALL DAY TODAY AS HIGHS HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS ENC THIS AFTERNOON. WE REMAIN WEDGED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST, A COASTAL
TROUGH JUST OFF OUR COAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF.
ENCROACHING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WELL TO THE
SOUTH IN THE GULF CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ENC BRINGING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA WHICH HAS AT LEAST TEMPERED THE MAX
TEMPS SOMEWHAT. REGARDLESS, IT HAS BEEN A PLEASANT SUNDAY
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH JUST OFF OUR COAST.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT E'RLY TO
CALM WINDS ACROSS ENC. ONCE AGAIN MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IT APPEARS
ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 SHOULD REMAIN MO CLEAR TONIGHT AND WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH DENSE FOG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL
THE STRATO-CU MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO SPOIL THE FOG
THREAT. FOR NOW WENT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE AND KEPT ANY FOG THREAT
WEST OF HWY 17 WHERE HREF PROBS ARE THE HIGHEST TO SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITY, BUT TRENDS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE CLOSER TO THE COAST STRATO-CU FROM THE PESKY COASTAL
TROUGH APPEAR TO REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING AREAS EAST OF HWY 17
UNDER PARTLY TO MO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SUN...ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
ENC ON MONDAY WITH A LOW END CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 AS A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY LOWER AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY, TEMPS SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. INSTABILITY IS LACKING, BUT THE STRONG FORCING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NE WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS (IF
MATERIALIZED) PAIRED WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SUBSTANTIAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FORMATION, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVER ENC THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH A LIGHT AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS IN BR/FG/MIFG. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER OR NOT IFR/LIFR WILL DEVELOP. SINCE
THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A STRENGTHENING SIGNAL ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER, I'VE OPTED TO LEAVE THE TAFS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, SHOWING
REDUCED VIS FROM KISO TO KPGV WHERE THE SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST. ANY BR/FG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 13-14Z
MONDAY. WITHIN THE MOIST, EASTERLY FLOW, A FEW SHRA DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE MAY SURVIVE TO THE COAST, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, INCLUDING THE MAIN TAF SITES IN ENC.
EVEN WHERE SHRA MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THE RISK OF TSRA APPEARS LOW
(<10% CHANCE).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. E WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM, TEMPORARILY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN... FAIRLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CENTERED
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COASTAL TROUGH NOTED ALONG OUR WATERS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NE-E'RLY WINDS AT 5-15 KTS WITH 3-6
FT SEAS NOTED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG OUR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET ON MONDAY AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL TROUGH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN VEERS TO SE TUESDAY PM. GULF STREAM COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME 6 FOOTERS THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WAVES BECOME 5 FT OR LESS
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BELOW 6FT
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AS BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH
MORE PLEASANT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
AHEAD OF IT, AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR
MOST MARINE ZONES. IF THE FCST TRENDS HIGHER, WE WOULD BE
REACHING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230PM SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY (10/7) TO
SATURDAY (10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING
TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL
VULNERABLE LOW LYING LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG NE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP
PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS, BUT SHOULD THEY MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST, OR GREATER, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES
COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE
STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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