479
FXUS62 KMHX 060650
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO ENC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE STALLED COLD FRONT TO END THE
WORK WEEK, WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. KING TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM MON...ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
ENC TODAY WITH A LOW END CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 AS A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS LOWER THAN 20% AS ONLY EXPECTING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH NO MEASURABLE EXPECTED. WITH CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY, TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN APPEAR
TO BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE WITH
CALM/LIGHT ERLY FLOW AND DECENT RAD INVERSION SETS UP. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR TO MID 60S COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. INSTABILITY IS LACKING, BUT THE STRONG FORCING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NE WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS PAIRED
WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM OFFSHORE
WATERS AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A
COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR POSSIBLE
IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM MON...A DECENT SIGNAL FOR FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS,
ESP FOR KISO/KPGV WHERE VSBYS MAY DROP TO 1/2 MI AT TIMES. ANY
BR/FG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13Z. A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY DOT ENC TODAY, BUT CHANCES LESS THAN 20% SO HAVE
LEFT ANY MENTIONBLE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FCST WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
CLOUDS TODAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. E WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM, TEMPORARILY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON... FAIRLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH NOTED ALONG OUR WATERS.
SOME LINGERING 6 FT SETS STILL OBSERVED OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS, BUT THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT
TODAY AND LAST REMAINING SCA WILL EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE TUESDAY PM. TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BELOW 6FT ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AS
BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY THURSDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND GUSTY NE
WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS FOR MOST MARINE ZONES, AND
CHANCES FOR SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRENDING
UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY (10/7) TO
SATURDAY (10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING
TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL
VULNERABLE LOW LYING LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG NE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP
PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS, BUT SHOULD THEY MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST, OR GREATER, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES
COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE
STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FOR ENC, AT THE VERY LEAST THIS
COASTAL LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS. THIS, PAIRED
WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES (ALTHOUGH KING TIDES WILL HAVE
ABATED BY THEN) COULD BRING CONTINUING COASTAL IMPACTS ON TOP OF
ANY IMPACTS MENTIONED THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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