429
FXUS62 KMHX 061758
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
158 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO ENC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE STALLED COLD FRONT TO END THE
WORK WEEK, WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. KING TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 PM MON...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS, WITH
STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE. BEST
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN APPEAR TO BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SIMILAR
PATTERN IN PLACE WITH CALM/LIGHT ERLY FLOW AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL INVERSION SETS UP. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY FLOW. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL,
GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE, WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER
THE SE US. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD VEER BECOMING SE.
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS, WITH
BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES AND
SE FLOW SUPPORT TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LACKING, BUT
THE STRONG FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NE WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS PAIRED
WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM OFFSHORE
WATERS AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A
COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR POSSIBLE
IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...SCT CU 4-5 KFT BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR TERMINALS TO SEE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 6-12Z, WITH BEST CHANCES AT PGV AND
ISO. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUE MORNING
WITH VFR RETURNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM, TEMPORARILY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW NE-E WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FT, STILL SEEING LONGER PERIOD 13 SECOND SWELL ACROSS THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY
GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY GRAD VEERING,
BECOMING E-SE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY 5-15 KT. SEAS 3-5 FT TONIGHT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND
GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS FOR MOST MARINE
ZONES, AND CHANCES FOR SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 2 PM MON...
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY (10/7) INTO
SATURDAY (10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING
TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL
VULNERABLE LOW LYING LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG NE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP
PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS, BUT SHOULD THEY MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST, OR GREATER, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES
COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE
STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FOR ENC, AT THE VERY LEAST THIS
COASTAL LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS. THIS, PAIRED
WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES (ALTHOUGH KING TIDES WILL HAVE
ABATED BY THEN) COULD BRING CONTINUING COASTAL IMPACTS (OCEAN
AND SOUNDSIDE) ON TOP OF ANY IMPACTS MENTIONED THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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