348
FXUS62 KMHX 070750
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
STALLED COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL STORM
FORMS OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. KING TIDES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 350 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL,
GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE, WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER
THE SE US. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD VEER BECOMING SE.
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS, BUT
AT THIS TIME KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW 20% AS PROBS ARE VERY LOW.
LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES AND SE FLOW SUPPORT TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INTERIOR TO NEAR 80 COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM TUE...VERY WARM CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
FLOW CONT TO VEER AROND TO THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INC IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE TONIGHT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
SKIRT THE COAST, ESP THE CRYSTAL COAST AREA, AND BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE INC RAIN CHANCES TO 30% HERE, THOUGH MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS AS HREF PROBS ARE CLOSER TO 40-60%.
MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES OF 20% OR LOWER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LACKING, BUT
THE STRONG FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NE WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS PAIRED
WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM OFFSHORE
WATERS AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A
COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR POSSIBLE
IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM TUE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG HAVE FORMED AT
KEWN/KPGV/KISO. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL
KEEP THE FOG THREAT THROUGH AROUND 13Z. LIGHT ERLY WINDS VEER
AROUND TO SE TO S LATE TODAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE ONSHORE
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST LATER TONIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES OF
RECEIVING RAIN AT KEWN. FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT, ESP COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM, TEMPORARILY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WED. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY GRAD VEERING, BECOMING E-SE TODAY AND
THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING, THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE, WITH SOME 5 FT SETS
IN THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND
GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS FOR MOST MARINE
ZONES, AND CHANCES FOR SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 2 PM MON...
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY (10/7) INTO
SATURDAY (10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING
TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL
VULNERABLE LOW LYING LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG NE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP
PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS, BUT SHOULD THEY MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST, OR GREATER, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES
COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE
STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FOR ENC, AT THE VERY LEAST THIS
COASTAL LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS. THIS, PAIRED
WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES (ALTHOUGH KING TIDES WILL HAVE
ABATED BY THEN) COULD BRING CONTINUING COASTAL IMPACTS (OCEAN
AND SOUNDSIDE) ON TOP OF ANY IMPACTS MENTIONED THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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