343
FXUS62 KMHX 071100
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
STALLED COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL STORM
FORMS OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. KING TIDES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...PATCHY, AND AT TIMES DENSE, FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO AS ATMS BEGINS TO MIX OUT. NO CHANGES TO
ONGOING FCST.
PREV DISC... AS OF 350 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL, GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE, WHILE UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE SE US. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD VEER
BECOMING SE. INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS, BUT AT THIS TIME KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW 20% AS PROBS
ARE VERY LOW. LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES AND SE FLOW SUPPORT TEMPS
ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INTERIOR TO NEAR 80
COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM TUE...VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
FLOW CONT TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INC IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE TONIGHT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
SKIRT THE COAST, ESP THE CRYSTAL COAST AREA, AND BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE INC RAIN CHANCES TO 30% HERE, THOUGH MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS AS HREF PROBS ARE CLOSER TO 40-60%.
MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES OF 20% OR LOWER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, THE UPPER
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LACKING, BUT
THE STRONG FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NE WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS PAIRED
WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT THIS WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING
FLOW MAY ALLOW THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM
OFFSHORE WATERS AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN A COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS
ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
TODAY. LIGHT ERLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO SE TO S LATE TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE ONSHORE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST LATER
TONIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAIN AT KEWN. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESP SRN COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM,
TEMPORARILY LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SE COAST, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. OTHER IMPACTS LIKE CIGS,
AND RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, WHICH
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WED. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY GRAD VEERING, BECOMING E-SE TODAY AND
THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING, THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE, WITH SOME 5 FT SETS
IN THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND
GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS FOR MOST MARINE
ZONES, AND CHANCES FOR SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OF THE SE US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THANKS TO VERY GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY (10/7) INTO
SATURDAY (10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING
TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL
VULNERABLE LOW LYING LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG NE WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP
PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS,
AND THE COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND
KING TIDES COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE
DUNE STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SHORTER
WAVE PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE POWER BEHIND THE
WAVES.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS. WHILE THERE IS VARIATION IN STRENGTH,
LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FOR ENC, AT THE VERY LEAST THIS COASTAL
LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS. THIS, PAIRED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES (ALTHOUGH KING TIDES WILL HAVE ABATED BY
THEN) COULD BRING CONTINUING COASTAL IMPACTS (OCEAN AND
SOUNDSIDE) ON TOP OF ANY IMPACTS MENTIONED THURSDAY-FRIDAY. OF
NOTE, WAVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE POWER OF THE WAVES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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