247
FXUS62 KMHX 071857
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE STALLED COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL
STORM FORMS OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. KING TIDES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NE/MID-ATLANTIC COASTS, EXTENDING OVER THE CAROLINAS
WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TRYING TO MIGRATE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD VEER BECOMING SE.
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS. VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FLOW CONT TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INC IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS 65-70 DEG. LATE TONIGHT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
SKIRT THE COAST, AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED BUT STRONG FORCING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. PERIODS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE, WITH A LOW FLOODING THREAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SSW FLOW SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY NE WINDS, HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS PAIRED WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT THIS WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING
FLOW MAY ALLOW THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM
OFFSHORE WATERS AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN A COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS
ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT, ESP SRN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISO STORMS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD A COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY PM, TEMPORARILY LOWERING
CIGS AND VIS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. OTHER IMPACTS LIKE CIGS, AND RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW E-SE WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED, WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD
VEER TONIGHT, BECOMING S-SW LATE TONIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE, WITH SOME 5 FT SETS IN THE
OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...WEDNESDAY PM INTO EARLY THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND
GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS FOR MOST MARINE
ZONES, AND CHANCES FOR SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OF THE SE US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THANKS TO VERY
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM TUE...
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK:
THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY (10/11),
PEAKING THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING JUST FOR THE KING TIDES, MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TYPICAL VULNERABLE LOW LYING
LOCALES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE WIND GUSTS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WOULD HELP WAVES
BUILD ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE RIVER. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, AND THE COMPOUNDING
EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES COULD CAUSE
GREATER IMPACTS FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE STRUCTURES ALONG
OBX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SHORTER WAVE PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY LIMIT THE POWER BEHIND THE WAVES.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS. WHILE THERE IS VARIATION IN STRENGTH,
LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FOR ENC, AT THE VERY LEAST THIS COASTAL
LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS. THIS, PAIRED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES (ALTHOUGH KING TIDES WILL HAVE ABATED BY
THEN) COULD BRING CONTINUING COASTAL IMPACTS (OCEAN AND
SOUNDSIDE) ON TOP OF ANY IMPACTS MENTIONED THURSDAY-FRIDAY. OF
NOTE, WAVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE POWER OF THE WAVES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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