130
FXUS62 KMHX 080644
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
244 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END
THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL STORM FORMS OFF THE COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TN VALLEYS, IS EXPECTED TO REACH ENC LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW PWATS TO RISE TO 1.5-2.0" THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF ENC.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND MODEST LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH ENC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
A MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL JET ENCROACHING ON THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT AROUND THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. MODEST FORCING, WEAK INSTABILITY,
AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW. HOWEVER, MACHINE LEARNING AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE RISK ISN'T ZERO. IT APPEARS
THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. THIS MAY
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT ONE FINAL DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. MODERATE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 60S, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (STRONGEST
ALONG THE OBX).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY NE WINDS, HIGHEST OVER COASTAL ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS PAIRED WITH KING TIDES WOULD BRING COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT THIS WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING
FLOW MAY ALLOW THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM
OFFSHORE WATERS AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN A COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS
ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
- TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS BEHIND A FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF TSRA APPEARS LOW DURING THIS TIME
(<10% CHANCE). WHERE/IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FOR ANY AREA,
LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA AND SCT TSRA. ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A N TO NE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. SCT TO BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS
APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ TO
KEWN AND POINTS SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE
COAST, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. OTHER IMPACTS LIKE CIGS, AND
RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, WHICH IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-15KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH AREA WATERS, WITH A SHARP NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT, A
PERIOD OF 20-30KT NE WINDS IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF
25-35KT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 5-8 FT AT 5-7 SECONDS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 TUE...SCAS ISSUED FOR NE SURGE CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR NE GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS
FOR MOST MARINE ZONES, AND CHANCES FOR SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS
HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRENDING UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OF THE SE US
COAST. THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THANKS TO
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 340 PM TUE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR HATTERAS AND
OCRACOKE ISLANDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
IMPACTS. MAIN CONCERN IS OCEANSIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN OBX, SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES AND EASTERN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN
PAMLICO SOUND, FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE IMPACTS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
KING TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WEEK WE ENTER A KING TIDE CYCLE, WITH ASTRONOMICALLY
HIGH TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
(10/11), PEAKING THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE KING TIDES, STRONG
NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TO MODERATE CF IMPACTS. THIS WOULD HELP WAVES BUILD ALONG THE
COAST, AND MAY ALSO HELP PUSH SOME WATER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE RIVER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, AND THE COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF STRONG
WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND KING TIDES COULD CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS
FOR AREAS WITH VULNERABLE DUNE STRUCTURES ALONG OBX THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SHORTER WAVE PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
LIMIT THE POWER BEHIND THE WAVES.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL HELP SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS. WHILE THERE IS VARIATION IN STRENGTH,
LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FOR ENC, AT THE VERY LEAST THIS COASTAL
LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS. THIS, PAIRED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES (ALTHOUGH KING TIDES WILL HAVE ABATED BY
THEN) COULD BRING CONTINUING COASTAL IMPACTS (OCEAN AND
SOUNDSIDE) ON TOP OF ANY IMPACTS MENTIONED THURSDAY-FRIDAY. OF
NOTE, WAVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE POWER OF THE WAVES. COASTAL CONCERNS HIGHEST
THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT OCEAN OVERWASH
(OUTER BANKS), BEACH EROSION, COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-137-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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