677
FXUS62 KMHX 081129
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END
THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL STORM FORMS OFF THE COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TN VALLEYS, IS EXPECTED TO REACH ENC LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW PWATS TO RISE TO 1.5-2.0" THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF ENC.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND MODEST LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH ENC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
A MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL JET ENCROACHING ON THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT AROUND THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. MODEST FORCING, WEAK INSTABILITY,
AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW. HOWEVER, MACHINE LEARNING AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE RISK ISN'T ZERO. IT APPEARS
THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. THIS MAY
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT ONE FINAL DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. MODERATE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 60S, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (STRONGEST
ALONG THE OBX).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM WED...
THURSDAY...COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF
FROPA ON THU. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH KING TIDES
(HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES) MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
BEGINNING THURSDAY (SEE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW). OTHERWISE
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOW 70S, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
WEEK OF OCT. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN WITH HIGH PRES
NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN
PLACE, THU NIGHT WILL SHAPE UP TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
FALL THUS FAR, WITH FAVORED COOL SPOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST
POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 50. MUCH WARMER ON THE BEACHES IN
VICINITY OF THE STILL-WARM WATERS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
FRIDAY..TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE FL COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN SOME, WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THU AS INC CLOUD COVER KEEPS MAX T'S IN THE 70S.
MILDER TEMPS FRI NIGHT WITH INC CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S INTERIOR TO MID 60S COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF FL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BE POSITIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW
THE FORECASTED COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM OFFSHORE WATERS AND
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS COASTAL
STORM OFF THE COAST, STRENGTH, EXACT LOCATION, AND TIMING
IMPACTS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. AGAIN, SEE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL STORM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS BEHIND A FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
ENC IN THE 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH QUICKLY
OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCT TO BKN LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO ENC, WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
VFR. A BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
BACKING OFF SOME ON THE TSRA RISK. FOR NOW, I'VE OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR OAJ AND EWN WHERE THE TSRA RISK APPEARS THE
"GREATEST". A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, WITH GUSTY WINDS,
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ENC. WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO PULLED BACK
SOME ON THIS POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WEEKEND, A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
ENC COASTAL WATERS, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES, TO ENC. THIS WILL BRING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
WITH SUB VFR AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-15KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH AREA WATERS, WITH A SHARP NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT, A
PERIOD OF 20-30KT NE WINDS IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF
25-35KT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 5-8 FT AT 5-7 SECONDS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...STRONG SCA WINDS ON THU, WITH A PERIOD OF GALES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS FROM OCRACOKE TO SURF CITY THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. A LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BEFORE A COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF FLORIDA
AND THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS ENC THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES EXPECTED
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH SEAS OF 12-15 FT OR HIGHER. HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 4 AM WED...
KING TIDES AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THU WILL
BRING MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE AND
SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES. VULNERABLE AREAS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISL MAY EXPERIENCE OCEAN OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE SEVERELY WEAKENED. THE WINDS SLACKEN
A BIT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW MAY STALL OFF OR OVER THE NC COAST ON
SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DICTATE THE SEVERITY, EXTENT, AND LOCATIONS OF SOUND
SIDE FLOODING ESPECIALLY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-137-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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