246
FXUS62 KMHX 081840
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END
THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
DELAWARE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN GEORGIA IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NC THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN NC LATER
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD HAS BUILT PWATS TO 1.8" BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSES. THE
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
ENC. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ENC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS SEVERAL FEATURES, A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE THAN
OTHERS OVER THE HWY 264 AREA. MOST CONVECTION IS WEAK SHOWERY,
WITH NO LIGHTNING. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN PUSH OFF THE
COAST BY 00-02Z/8-10PM EDT.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
SURGE DOWN THE COAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, INHIBITING
ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORMATION. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BEGIN OUR PROLONGED
NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENT FOR EASTERN NC. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
(1034 MB) WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE NC/SC COAST. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40
MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM WED...
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHAPE UP TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT
OF THE FALL THUS FAR, WITH FAVORED COOL SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 50. MUCH WARMER ON THE BEACHES
IN VICINITY OF THE STILL-WARM WATERS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
FRIDAY..TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE FL COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN SOME, WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THU AS INC CLOUD COVER KEEPS MAX T'S IN THE 70S.
MILDER TEMPS FRI NIGHT WITH INC CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S INTERIOR TO MID 60S COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF FL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BE POSITIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW
THE COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM OFFSHORE WATERS AND STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL
STORM OFF THE COAST, THE STRENGTH, EXACT LOCATION, AND TIMING
IMPACTS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL STORM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
- WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS BEHIND A FRONT THIS EVENING
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
EASTERN NC TERMINALS BY 21Z-03Z TIMEFRAME, THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE
BY 06Z TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS. A BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. A NOTABLE NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT, WITH GUSTY WINDS, WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF
20-25KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO PULLED BACK SOME ON THIS
POTENTIAL. THURSDAY WILL BE VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WEEKEND, A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
ENC COASTAL WATERS, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES, TO ENC. THIS WILL BRING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
WITH SUB VFR AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING
- GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE
LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS, WITH THE COLD FRONT STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT WESTERLY
AT DUCK, NC. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
NC WATERS, WITH A SHARP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT, A PERIOD OF 20-30KT NE WINDS IS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8 FT AT 5-7 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTH OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...STRONG SCA WINDS ON THU, WITH A PERIOD OF GALES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS FROM OCRACOKE TO SURF CITY THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. A LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BEFORE A COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF FLORIDA
AND THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS ENC THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES EXPECTED
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH SEAS OF 12-15 FT OR HIGHER. HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...
KING TIDES AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WILL BRING MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE
AND SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES. VULNERABLE AREAS ON HATTERAS AND
OCRACOKE ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE OCEAN OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE WEAKENED. THE WINDS SUBSIDE
A BIT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW MAY STALL JUST OFF OR OVER THE NC
COAST ON SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE COASTAL LOW
WILL DICTATE THE SEVERITY, EXTENT, AND LOCATIONS OF OCEANSIDE
AND SOUND SIDE FLOODING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ135-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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