267
FXUS62 KMHX 090043
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
843 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END
THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COASTAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 815 PM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
PAMLICO RIVER TO RODANTHE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
LATE THIS EVENING, PUSHING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWER CHANCES WILL END AN HOUR TO TWO AFTER
FROPA. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH INLAND AND 30-40 MPH
ALONG THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
DELAWARE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN GEORGIA IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NC THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN NC LATER
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD HAS BUILT PWATS TO 1.8" BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSES. THE
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
ENC. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ENC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS SEVERAL FEATURES, A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE THAN
OTHERS OVER THE HWY 264 AREA. MOST CONVECTION IS WEAK SHOWERY,
WITH NO LIGHTNING. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN PUSH OFF THE
COAST BY 00-02Z/8-10PM EDT.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
SURGE DOWN THE COAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, INHIBITING
ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORMATION. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BEGIN OUR PROLONGED
NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENT FOR EASTERN NC. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
(1034 MB) WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE NC/SC COAST. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40
MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM WED...
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHAPE UP TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT
OF THE FALL THUS FAR, WITH FAVORED COOL SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 50. MUCH WARMER ON THE BEACHES
IN VICINITY OF THE STILL-WARM WATERS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
FRIDAY..TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE FL COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN SOME, WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THU AS INC CLOUD COVER KEEPS MAX T'S IN THE 70S.
MILDER TEMPS FRI NIGHT WITH INC CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S INTERIOR TO MID 60S COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF FL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BE POSITIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WARM WATERS AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW
THE COASTAL LOW TO SIT OVER WARM OFFSHORE WATERS AND STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL
STORM OFF THE COAST, THE STRENGTH, EXACT LOCATION, AND TIMING
IMPACTS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT SCENARIOS FROM THIS COASTAL STORM.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
- WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS BEHIND A FRONT THIS EVENING
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING
AS AT THIS HOUR IS STRETCHING FROM PGV TO AROUND RODANTHE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. PRED VFR EXPECTED A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
FROPA THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25
KT INLAND AND UP TO 35 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...THIS WEEKEND, A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE ENC COASTAL WATERS, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO ENC. THIS WILL
BRING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH SUB VFR AND STRONG WINDS
LIKELY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING
- GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. SEEING A
NORTHERLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND MOVING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT TO AROUND 6-8 FT NORTHERN WATERS AND 4-6 FT SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH THE COLD FRONT STARTING
TO CREEP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHIFT WESTERLY AT DUCK, NC. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NC WATERS, WITH A SHARP NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT, A PERIOD OF
20-30KT NE WINDS IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT AT 5-7 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY,
LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...A LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE A COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF FLORIDA AND THEN
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS ENC THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY HIGH
SEAS OF 12-15 FT OR HIGHER. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...KING TIDES AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES. VULNERABLE
AREAS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE
WEAKENED. THE WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW MAY STALL JUST OFF OR OVER THE NC
COAST ON SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE COASTAL LOW
WILL DICTATE THE SEVERITY, EXTENT, AND LOCATIONS OF OCEANSIDE
AND SOUND SIDE FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND INTO MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL LOW.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ196-203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NCZ204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-135-150-
152-154-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/SK
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/SK/TL
MARINE...DAG/SK/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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