661
FXUS62 KMHX 090701
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF ENC. THE COASTAL
LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY LINGERING AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAIN, PROLONGED NORTHEAST WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 12:30 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER AND DRIER WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-35 MPH
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING, NNE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THIS AIR
MASS CHANGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID-50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID-
60S ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WE'LL ONLY REBOUND
TO THE LOW- TO MID-70S WITH DEWS IN THE 50S AND NE WINDS GUSTING TO
20-30 INLAND AND 30-35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 12:45 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, 15-
25 MPH INLAND AND 25-35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID-50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE LOW-60S AT THE BEACHES
WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND TREACHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF FL.
CLOSER TO HOME, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
SUPPORTING GREATER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 25-30
MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE FL COAST
WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY
AND WILL THEN STALL NEAR ENC BEFORE LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND SPEED OF THIS LOW REMAINS MURKY
WITH GUIDANCE STILL PAINTING A BROAD RANGE OF SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS OF THE LOW'S ULTIMATE TRACK, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
STRONG NE WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, AND TREACHEROUS
SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
WIND - STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM ENC. WINDS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH
INLAND AND 35-50 MPH ALONG THE COAST (HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS). IF THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY.
RAIN - MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, WHICH
SHOULD MAKE A DENT IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF HAS 2-5" GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. WEST OF HIGHWAY 17, STORM
TOTAL QPF IS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2". WPC HAS THE HIGHER QPF AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING) ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IF THE CURRENT QPF
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE OUTER BANKS WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH COASTAL FLOODING MADE WORSE BY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.
COASTAL FLOODING - SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY N/NE WINDS (20-25KT) ON THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW CLEARED THE
COAST OF ENC, AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE SC
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS (VFR) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH HOW LONG THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL LAST, AND I LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLEARING
SKIES. ON THURSDAY, DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT COMMON. FOR
KEWN, THIS MAY LEAD TO CROSSWIND IMPACTS. THE RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING,
BUT MAY LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LOW NORTH
TOWARDS ENC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIFFER
SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DESPITE ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTABLE
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACTS FOR ENC. FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS, THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AS IT LEADS TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. FOR NOW, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT
FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH 30KT+ GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR RUNWAYS ACROSS
THE OBX. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE WIND FORECAST,
AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE FOR TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
OTHER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-
VFR CIGS AND REDUCED VIS IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- POST FRONTAL NE WIND SURGE TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY
- GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT ARE ONGOING ACROSS ALL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. NORTH OF THERE, OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE APPEAR POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, I LEFT THE GALE WARNING
AS IS (FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL
BE THE STRONGEST, AND WHERE GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST
FREQUENT). ELSEWHERE, A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE. SEAS OF 5-8FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 6- 10 FT
BY TONIGHT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MORE SHELTERED
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE ENC WATERS WITH MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MARINE INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LOW NORTH
TOWARDS ENC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIFFER
SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DESPITE ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTABLE
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACTS FOR ENC WATERS.
BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD 30-40KT NORTHERLY
WINDS. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE MORE BROAD WIND FIELD, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED WINDS UP TO STORM FORCE. WHERE,
AND IF, THESE ENHANCED WINDS DEVELOP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK, AND STRENGTH, OF THE COASTAL LOW, AND WHERE THE
PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE. THOSE
BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, AND GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHERE THOSE WILL RESIDE.
REGARDLESS, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
MARINERS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FROM SATURDAY - MONDAY. IN ADDITION
TO HAZARDOUS WINDS, SEAS OF 10- 15FT AT 10-12 SECONDS APPEARS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH (5-10 FT TO THE
SOUTH).
PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK REGULARLY FOR UPDATES ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...KING TIDES AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES. VULNERABLE
AREAS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE
WEAKENED. THE WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW MAY STALL JUST OFF OR OVER THE NC
COAST ON SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE COASTAL LOW
WILL DICTATE THE SEVERITY, EXTENT, AND LOCATIONS OF OCEANSIDE
AND SOUND SIDE FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND INTO MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL LOW.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-135-137-
150-152-154-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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