080
FXUS62 KMHX 100833
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG, OR JUST OFF, THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAIN, PROLONGED NORTHEAST WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 1:50 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-35 MPH
- SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
TODAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER ENC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS,
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
20-30 MPH INLAND AND 25-35+ MPH ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE LOW- TO MID-70S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 2:15 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY
THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE FL COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH
TONIGHT, PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT TOWARDS ENC AND INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING CELLS.
THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NE WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 MPH INLAND AND
20-30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2:45 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND TRECHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK
SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL THEN STALL NEAR ENC BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A SOLUTION THAT TAKES IT NEAR OR ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
THE OUTER BANKS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONG NE WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, AND TREACHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE COASTAL LOW BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT FUZZY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE EURO SHOWING IT RETROGRADING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
IT SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
WIND - STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
ENC. WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH INLAND AND 35-50 MPH ALONG THE COAST (HIGHEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS). IF THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE LOW
OUT TO SEA.
RAIN - MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, WHICH
SHOULD MAKE A DENT IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF HAS 2-5+" GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. WEST OF HIGHWAY 17, STORM
TOTAL QPF IS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2". WPC HAS THE HIGHER QPF AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING) ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY FROM 2 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY HELP LESSEN THE FLOOD THREAT, THE QPF STILL EXCEEDS
THE FFG FOR THIS AREA. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION PORTAL
HAS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA PAINTED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 3.5-4.5" RANGE WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS (10% CHANCE OF HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS) IN THE 5.5-6.5" RANGE.
COASTAL FLOODING - SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW.
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US AND A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CWA.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, PLUS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING, SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AT ALL TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY FROM SUNRISE FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS MAY LAST WELL INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ TO KEWN. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS IN THE 3000-5000FT RANGE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CIGS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF CYCLE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE. FOR NOW, I HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUB VFR CIGS, BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
06Z/SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS, OR VERY
NEAR, THE COAST OF NC THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
BRING WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CIGS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN,
TSRA, REDUCED VIS, AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF ENC. THE RISK OF
REDUCED VIS, HEAVY RAIN, AND TSRA LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS, FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST A
BIT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE
GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WILL REMAIN A RISK FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN TO 10-20KT, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT, AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
THERE MAY BE AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF HIGHER GUSTS AND
WATERSPOUTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE ENC WATERS WITH MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
A COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT OFF
THE COAST EAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THEN MOVE NORTH TO OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 18Z/00Z GUIDANCE
HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, STAYED CLOSE TO, OR SLIGHTLY WEST, OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT
WEAKER WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS, GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HONING IN ON A SCENARIO
FAVORING WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE ENC WATERS. SINCE THE LOW HASN'T YET FORMED OFF THE COAST,
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH. OF NOTE, THERE IS STILL A CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE THAT
SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
WATERS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST
WITH THE TRACK, WHICH DIFFERS FROM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(WHICH HAS SHIFTED WEST). THIS GOES TO SHOW THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, BASED ON WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, OUR PLAN IS TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST
GALE WATCHES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS TO HELP GET THE MESSAGE OUT
ABOUT THE IMPENDING SYSTEM. WE'LL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST AND HEADLINES AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, THE ONGOING GALE WARNING
WILL STAND TO MESSAGE THE NEAR- TERM GALE HAZARDS. IF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HOLD, THIS WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH
A GALE WATCH TO COVER THE COASTAL LOW IMPACTS.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 6-8 FT SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BUILD TO 10-15 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. 10-15 FT SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
LAYING DOWN BEYOND THEN. FOR THE SHELTERED COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 5-9 FT RANGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INLAND RIVERS AND
SOUNDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS, THE COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE TRACK. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AND ENHANCED WINDS OF
45-50KT+.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...KING TIDES AND MODERATELY STRONG NE WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE BROUGHT MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES SINCE
YESTERDAY. BASED ON COASTAL WEBCAMS, VULNERABLE AREAS ON
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS EXPERIENCED AREAS OF OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES WERE
WEAKENED, WITH SOME WATER NOTED ON PORTIONS OF NC-12. GALE-FORCE
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST A BIT LONGER TODAY, AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
FAVORED IN NE FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG, OR JUST OFF, OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS DEVELOPING. COASTAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND INTO MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE
VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED THE GREATEST BY
MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE PAST 1-2 MONTHS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-137-
150-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ152.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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