206
FXUS62 KMHX 110600
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG, OR JUST OFF, THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAIN, PROLONGED NORTHEAST WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-35 MPH
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET 2AM SATURDAY ONWARDS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFFSHORE
TODAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER ENC. THIS
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30 MPH INLAND AND 25-35+ MPH ALONG
THE COAST. HIGHS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE LOW- TO
MID-70S. NE WINDS AND ELEVATED TIDES HAVE PRODUCED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN LOCATIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, SEE THE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION IN THE COMMENTS.
THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE FL COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH
TONIGHT, PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT TOWARDS ENC AND INCREASING POPS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES HAS SLOWED DOWN A TAD, WITH RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CRYSTAL COAST A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ONWARDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE CONDITIONS
WORSEN LATER SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 2:30 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSEN AS COASTAL LOW APPROACHES EASTERN
NC
AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES ENC FROM THE SOUTH AND STEADILY
STRENGTHENS, HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND
CANADIAN MARITIME. THIS RESULTS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING MORE PINCHED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH WIND GUSTS
STEADILY INCREASING AS A RESULT. THE CONTINUED WESTERLY TREND OF
THE TRACK ALLOWS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
WINDS ALOFT (AROUND 850MB) WILL BE PRETTY STRONG, 40-50KTS.
HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO PRETTY CURVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WITH
0-3KM SRH IN THE 200-400 RANGE, MAYBE EVEN HIGHER. FORTUNATELY,
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS AMPLE CLOUD
COVER PREVENTS LAPSE RATES FROM GETTING TOO STEEP. IF WE HAD
MORE INSTABILITY, A TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE ON THE TABLE, BUT
GIVEN THE LOW CAPE VALUES THIS SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. HOWEVER,
ALONG OUR WATERS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WATERSPOUTS TO
FORM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE COASTS FROM THE SOUTH AS THIS WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. AS THE COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 2:45 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND TRECHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK
SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL THEN STALL NEAR ENC BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A SOLUTION THAT TAKES IT NEAR OR ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
THE OUTER BANKS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONG NE WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, AND TREACHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE COASTAL LOW BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS A BIT FUZZY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE EURO SHOWING IT RETROGRADING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
IT SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
WIND - STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
ENC. WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH INLAND AND 35-50 MPH ALONG THE COAST (HIGHEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS). IF THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE LOW
OUT TO SEA.
RAIN - MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, WHICH
SHOULD MAKE A DENT IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF HAS 2-5+" GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. WEST OF HIGHWAY 17, STORM
TOTAL QPF IS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2". WPC HAS THE HIGHER QPF AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING) ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY FROM 2 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY HELP LESSEN THE FLOOD THREAT, THE QPF STILL EXCEEDS
THE FFG FOR THIS AREA. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION PORTAL
HAS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA PAINTED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 3.5-4.5" RANGE WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS (10% CHANCE OF HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS) IN THE 5.5-6.5" RANGE.
COASTAL FLOODING - SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW.
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US AND A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CWA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO GET ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS LOW NORTH UP THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. HERE IN ENC, THE ONLY
REAL IMPACT OF THAT IS PERHAPS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF IFR, OR
LOWER, CIGS. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS
AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH. CIGS SHOULD STEADILY LOWER DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MORE BROAD AREA OF RA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IS
HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE OF ENC. AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF 30KT+ GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING, MAINLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRI...A STRONG COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS, OR VERY NEAR, THE COAST OF NC THIS WEEKEND. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CIGS,
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, TSRA, REDUCED VIS, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF ENC. THE RISK OF REDUCED VIS, HEAVY RAIN, AND TSRA LOOKS
TO BE FOCUSED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THEN CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, INCREASING SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GALE WARNINGS BEGIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-25 KT GUSTING 25-30 KT WITH
SEAS 6-9 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN TO 10-20KT, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, TONIGHT. COASTAL LOW WILL GRAD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. NE-E WINDS 15-25 KT
EARLY SAT, INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS, RIVERS, AND NORTHERN
WATERS. ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 35 KT LATE SAT. SEAS 6-9 FT
EARLY SAT WILL BUILD TO 6-13 FT BY SAT EVE.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT, AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
THERE MAY BE AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF HIGHER GUSTS AND
WATERSPOUTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE ENC WATERS WITH MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COASTAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN MOVE NORTH TO
OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 18Z/00Z GUIDANCE HAS, FOR THE MOST PART,
STAYED CLOSE TO, OR SLIGHTLY WEST, OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE LOW AS IT
MOVES UP THE COAST. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS, GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE HONING IN ON A SCENARIO FAVORING WIDESPREAD GALE-
FORCE WINDS FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENC WATERS. SINCE THE
LOW HASN'T YET FORMED OFF THE COAST, THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. OF NOTE,
THERE IS STILL A CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS A PERIOD
OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WATERS. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE TRACK, WHICH
DIFFERS FROM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS SHIFTED WEST).
THIS GOES TO SHOW THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER, BASED ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
OUR PLAN IS TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST GALE WATCHES FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS TO HELP GET THE MESSAGE OUT ABOUT THE IMPENDING SYSTEM.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST AND HEADLINES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS - 10-15 FT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADUALLY LAYING DOWN BEYOND THEN. FOR THE SHELTERED
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
IN THE 5-9 FT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS, THE COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE TRACK. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AND ENHANCED WINDS OF
45-50KT+.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY... RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PWATS NEAR 2" AND AMPLE FORCING AHEAD
OF AND NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCES ARE
ALONG THE COAST, EAST OF HWY 17. PORTIONS OF THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 3-6"+ INCHES WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS THE
GREATEST. WHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE,
TRAINING SHOWERS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHEN IT COMES TO
FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS
AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY STARTING 2 AM SATURDAY AND ENDING 8
AM SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE
ONSET OF RAIN BACK BY A COUPLE HOURS. AS YOU GO FURTHER INLAND,
BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING DECREASE, WITH A LIKELY OUTCOME BEING
SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD, AND MAYBE NOT AS
PROLIFIC WHEN IT COMES TO FLASH FLOOD INDUCING RAIN RATES. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE ONSET OF RAIN BACK
BY A COUPLE HOURS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 310 PM FRI...KING TIDES AND MODERATELY STRONG NE WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE BROUGHT MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES TODAY. BASED
ON COASTAL WEBCAMS, VULNERABLE AREAS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLANDS EXPERIENCED AREAS OF OCEAN OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES WERE WEAKENED, WITH SOME WATER NOTED
ON PORTIONS OF NC-12. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND WATER LEVELS WILL GRAD IMPROVE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG, OR JUST OFF, OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS DEVELOPING. COASTAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND INTO MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS WHICH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER IMPACTS
FROM THE COASTAL LOW, ESP ALONG THE OCEANSIDE. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED THE GREATEST BY MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE PAST 1-2
MONTHS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
137-150-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ131-
150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
152.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ135-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ136.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AMZ137.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK/RJ
SHORT TERM...CQD/RJ
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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