117
FXUS62 KMHX 110850
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING MULTIPLE HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY
- INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW
THAT'S CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF FL. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
AGREEMENT ON HOW THE LOW WILL BEHAVE TODAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MURKY THEREAFTER.
TODAY, THE LOW AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH, RAISING CONCERNS
FOR THE FOLLOWING:
COASTAL FLOODING - CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO CAUSE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO SOME
COMMUNITIES, WHICH WILL BE EXACERBATED BY ONGOING KING TIDES (SEE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION).
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS - ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PLENTIFUL, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TODAY GIVEN A LACK
OF INSTABILITY. IF A DEEPER UPDRAFT WERE TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER,
THE OUTER BANKS, CRYSTAL COAST, AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING IT.
HEAVY RAIN - STORM TOTAL QPF (THROUGH MONDAY) HAS TRENDED UP OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 2-6+" EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND CRYSTAL COAST) AND
1-3" TO THE WEST. HIGH END AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN ZONES ARE IN THE
7-8" RANGE. TODAY'S RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1-2" EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 WITH HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
(2-4"). WEST OF HIGHWAY 17, 0.5-1.5" IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL HELP LESSEN THE FLOOD THREAT, THE STORM
TOTAL QPF EXCEEDS FFG ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND CRYSTAL COAST.
SO, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WESTERN CARTERET COUNTY IF THE LOW
TRENDS TOWARD THE INLAND ROUTE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
WIND - A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY FOR 20-35 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER GUSTS AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY UNTIL 2 AM
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM
TONIGHT IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THERE ARE THREE
CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS:
1) THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC/NC COAST UNTIL SUNDAY BEFORE
IT MOVES INLAND NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST, PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH
MONDAY
2) THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS
3) THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A SECOND LOW FORMING OFF THE
NC/VA BORDER, BOTH OF WHICH MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK
COASTAL FLOODING - CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NORTHEAST WINDS
TO CAUSE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TO
SOME COMMUNITIES, WHICH WILL BE EXACERBATED BY ONGOING KING
TIDES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION).
SEVERE - SCENARIO 1 WOULD INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND CRYSTAL COAST. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO COME TO
FRUITION, THE PEAK SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. CAMS ARE
SHOWING 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND AMPLE SHEAR CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN SEVERE
HAZARD OF CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT A BRIEF TORNADO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES.
RAIN - HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4+" ON
THE TABLE FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" TO THE
WEST. SCENARIO 1 WOULD ALLOW HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS TO BLEED FARTHER
INLAND, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN SHOULD HELP LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS IN THIS AREA.
THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY UNTIL 2 AM. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
WIND - THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY FOR 20-35 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. STRONGER GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3:50 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND TRECHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
SUNDAY - FRIDAY...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW. AS OF NOW, NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE
NNW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY WILL START A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT'S CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EVEN AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR COAST (SEE THE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION).
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO GET ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS LOW NORTH UP THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. HERE IN ENC, THE ONLY
REAL IMPACT OF THAT IS PERHAPS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF IFR, OR
LOWER, CIGS. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS
AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH. CIGS SHOULD STEADILY LOWER DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MORE BROAD AREA OF RA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IS
HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE OF ENC. AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF 30KT+ GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING, MAINLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ENC. AREAS OF RA AND REDUCED VIS ARE LIKELY AS
WELL. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE A CONTINUED RISK OF TSRA,
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW ENDS UP STAYING
OFFSHORE, THE TSRA RISK WOULD TEND TO BE LOWER. MEANWHILE, IF
THE LOW MOVES INLAND, THE TSRA RISK WOULD BE HIGHER. GUSTY NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES TO THE SOUTH OF ENC
- GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH UP
THE COAST. MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS LOW AS IT
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
TRENDED SLOWER, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE LOW MAY NOT
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE COAST OF ENC. DESPITE THIS
TREND, THE DEEPER TREND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF GALES FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENC WATERS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN LIGHT OF THIS, ALL GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS. THE ONLY AREA NOT IN A WARNING IS THE
PAMLICO RIVER, WHERE GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO
BE AS FREQUENT. THERE, A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CLUSTER
OF GUIDANCE SHOWING STORM-FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS COULD BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM OF STRONG
WINDS TO THE WATER SURFACE. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR A STORM
WARNING TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME WATERS, BUT CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAKES THIS POTENTIAL LESS CERTAIN. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE AT 10-12 SECONDS.
SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS OF 5-10 FT ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENC WATERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
GUIDANCE IS NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS WEEKEND'S COASTAL LOW. ONE CAMP
SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF ENC, POTENTIALLY NEVER
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO STILL SUPPORTS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, BUT POTENTIALLY FOCUSING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS
SCENARIO APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY NORTH THROUGH, AND BEYOND, ENC. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD HELP EXTEND THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER NORTH, BUT
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE LOSING MODEL SUPPORT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS INTO SUNDAY TO CAPTURE THE
COASTAL LOW'S IMPACTS. EVENTUALLY, A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35KT CONTINUING.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 4 AM SATURDAY... RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. PWATS AROUND 2" AND AMPLE FORCING AHEAD OF AND NEAR
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCES ARE ALONG THE
COAST, EAST OF HWY 17. PORTIONS OF THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE 4-6"+ INCHES WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST.
WHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, TRAINING SHOWERS
WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHEN IT COMES TO FLASH FLOODING. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY. AS YOU GO FURTHER INLAND,
MOISTURE AND FORCING DECREASE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH LESS IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES. ADDITIONALLY, THE
COASTAL PLAIN IS EXPERIENCING MORE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL HELP REDUCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THIS AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 310 PM FRI...KING TIDES AND MODERATELY STRONG NE WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE BROUGHT MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS TO BOTH OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE COMMUNITIES TODAY. BASED
ON COASTAL WEBCAMS, VULNERABLE AREAS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLANDS EXPERIENCED AREAS OF OCEAN OVERWASH DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES WERE WEAKENED, WITH SOME WATER NOTED
ON PORTIONS OF NC-12. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND WATER LEVELS WILL GRAD IMPROVE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG, OR JUST OFF, OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS DEVELOPING. COASTAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND INTO MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS WHICH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER IMPACTS
FROM THE COASTAL LOW, ESP ALONG THE OCEANSIDE. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED THE GREATEST BY MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE PAST 1-2
MONTHS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
194>196-199-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ196-204.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ196-204-205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ203-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ131-150-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135-137-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ136.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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