592
FXUS62 KMHX 120552
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
152 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING MULTIPLE HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM SAT
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND ADVISORY EXPANDED TO MANY COUNTIES ADJACENT TO COASTAL
LOCALES
- COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPANDED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
LOWER NEUSE RIVER
A TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO POSITIONING OF LOW
THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST ON
SUNDAY.
FIRSTLY, AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
HAS EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO INITIAL AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. PRESSURE
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH OF ENC EVIDENT IN INC WINDS OFF THE SC
WATERS, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 KT AT FRYING PAN TOWER.
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OFF THE
GA/SC COAST LIFTS NORTH AND DEEPENS. THIS IS WHEN WINDS WILL BE
AT THEIR STRONGEST, FIRST ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND SRN OBX,
THEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE EXPANDED WIND
ADVISORIES TO AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND, AS WELL AS
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE NORTH. COMMUNITIES WITH A FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE WATER WILL
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ON
THE OBX SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND CEDAR ISLAND, WHERE LOCAL WIND
GUSTS MAY PEAK 55-60 MPH. BECAUSE OF THE BRIEF DURATION OF THESE
VERY HIGH WIND POSSIBILITIES, HAVE OPTED OUT OF A HIGH WIND WARN
AT THIS TIME. THESE HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE PROMPTED AN
UPGRADE TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME COUNTIES ADJACENT TO
THE LOWER NEUSE (SEE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW). RAINFALL HAS
REMAINED STEADY SINCE LAST FCST, AND NO CHANGES TO FLOOD WATCH,
WITH 3-6" ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND
FROM THERE. THREAT FOR THUNDER HAS GONE DOWN, BUT WITH STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION DEVELOPING TONIGHT, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS IN EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED, ESP E OF HWY
17.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW POSITION TOMORROW IS
STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION, BUT SOME HEADWAY IN MODEL GUIDANCE
CONFLUENCE CONTINUES. THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE TAKING
THE LOW INLAND ACROSS ENC, BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE
(GFS/EC/ICON/GEM_REG) BRING THE LOW TO A GRIDING HALT OFF OF
CAPE FEAR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DOUBLE BARRELED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST TOMORROW, WITH PARENT LOW
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE SECONDARY LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY, AND SPUR
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC, PULLING THE LOW OFF
THE NC COAST LATE SUN INTO MON. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR ALL OF ENC
TO NOW REMAIN UNDER NERLY FLOW, AND THEREFORE A STRONGER WIND
FIELD TO CONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HAVE INC WINDS AS A
RESULT, WITH ADVISORY OR NEAR ADVISORY WINDS CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. WHERE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST, ACRS THE NERN ZONES,
HAVE CONT THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY. REMAINDER OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A CONTINUATION OF
THE WIND HEADLINES IF LATER FORECASTS COME UP HIGHER WITH WINDS.
SLGT CHC THUNDER IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME LESS THAN 10%
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE REMOVED ANY THUNDER MENTION
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL CONT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH AND SFC LOW
MEANDERS OFF THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND TRECHEROUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL GRAD BACK TO THE
NNW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY WILL START A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT'S CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EVEN AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR COAST (SEE THE
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION).
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CIGS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LLWS TO ENC
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS, A COASTAL
LOW IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 160 MILES SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT, AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NE AT AROUND 20KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE ON THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
REACHING ENC BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NE WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS, POTENTIALLY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF 25-35KT WILL BE COMMON INLAND, WITH
GUSTS OF 40-50KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. CIGS HAVE
STUBBORNLY STAYED AT MVFR OF LATE, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON CIGS FALLING INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. I'VE ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO REFLECT
THE SLOWER ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS. WHILE A TSRA RISK REMAINS,
THE PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW (<20%) THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK WILL SHIFT NW WITH TIME, BUT
MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY FROM KISO TO KPGV.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ENC. GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HAVE EXTENDED GALE WARNINGS THROUGH THE DAY
SUN AND INTO EARLY SUN EVENING. GALE WARNINGS CONT FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT PAMLICO RIVER, WHERE ANY GALES WILL BE FAIRLY
BRIEF TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE SHOWING STORM- FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, HOWEVER PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE FROM THE 11/12Z ECM STILL HOVERS AROUND 40-60% FOR
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50KT OCCURRING, SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY
STORM WARNING PRODUCTS HERE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE WATERS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW, AS TRACK OF LOW
SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF ENC UNDER
STABLE FLOW REGIME, BUT AREAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR SOME CONVECTION TO MIGRATE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND A LOW END THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
GALES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE LOW REMAINING OFFSHORE
WITH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE REMAINING UNDER
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 11-16 FT RANGE AT 10-12 SECONDS.
SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS OF 7-12 FT ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENC WATERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONG WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS INTO SUNDAY EVENING TO CAPTURE THE
COASTAL LOW'S IMPACTS. EVENTUALLY, A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 KT CONTINUING. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 10-15 FT, HIGHEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 8 PM SAT...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. PWATS AROUND 2" AND AMPLE FORCING AHEAD OF AND NEAR
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCES ARE ALONG THE
COAST, EAST OF HWY 17. PORTIONS OF THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
4-6"+ INCHES WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST. WHILE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, TRAINING SHOWERS WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHEN IT COMES TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY. AS YOU GO FURTHER INLAND, MOISTURE AND
FORCING DECREASE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH LESS IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES. ADDITIONALLY, THE COASTAL PLAIN
IS EXPERIENCING MORE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL
HELP REDUCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 315 PM SAT...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED REGARDING THE TRACK BEYOND THAT POINT.
SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS IT INTO ENC, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
OFFSHORE. THIS HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS, WHICH ALSO FACTORS INTO WHAT COASTAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING COASTAL
IMPACTS, BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS STILL HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
HAVE UPGRADED TO CF WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS, AND
SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE MODERATE IMPACTS. SOME MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS ADJ TO THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. COASTAL FLOOD
PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
CRYSTAL COAST, AND AREAS ADJ TO THE PAMLICO/PUNGO RVR...WITH CF
WARNINGS FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
IMPACTED THE GREATEST BY MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE PAST 1-2
MONTHS. PORTIONS OF NC-12 ON OCRACOKE ISLAND ALREADY CLOSED DUE
TO OCEAN OVERWASH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
DUCK TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ046-047.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
195-199.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ081-094-194-195.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ203.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ131-137-230-231.
STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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