506
FXUS62 KMHX 120638
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING MULTIPLE HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN BY MID-
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS
THROUGH TONIGHT
- HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OBX
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS, THE COASTAL
LOW APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 160 MILES SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. IN GENERAL,
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LOW NORTH TOWARDS THE
NC COASTLINE DURING THE DAY TODAY. BASED ON THIS TRACK, STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT APPEARS THE RISK OF
STRONG WINDS WILL NOW LAST LONGER, AND POTENTIALLY OVER A
LARGER AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED WIND
POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WILL BE RIGHT ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES SW TO NE FROM THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE OBX. THIS FRONT
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AS
WELL AS A LOCALLY HIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT, BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD
ACT TO SUPPORT 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. THIS AREA LOOKS
TO BE FOCUSED FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH, AND A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH THE NRN
OBX. A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY, WHERE EVEN SHALLOW MIXING COULD SUPPORT SOME
40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS BENEATH THE STRONG, 50KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ
OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE LOW, THIS JET
SHOULD HAVE MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE AREA, INCLUDING DURING
PEAK HEATING.
TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW OVER GA/SC, A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT HAS
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, WHICH HAS HELPED TRANSITION
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN TO
MORE SHOWERY RAIN. I SUSPECT THE MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS WILL HELP TO LOWER
RAINFALL RATES FOR MOST. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA, AN AREA OF HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND
PRECIP MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH RATES GOING BACK UP.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN 2 CAMPS REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW TONIGHT. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE LOW WILL STALL NEAR ENC, THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SW BEFORE
GETTING KICKED EAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH UP THE COAST
FROM NC TO VA. SCENARIO 1 WOULD TEND TO FAVOR DECREASING WINDS
TONIGHT, WHILE SCENARIO 2 WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF STRONGER
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX. HI-RES
GUIDANCE APPEARED TO HANDLE THE TRACK OF THE LAST COASTAL LOW
FAIRLY WELL, AND WE ARE LEANING THAT DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY, IT
APPEARS THAT THE RISK OF 45+ MPH GUSTS WILL DECREASE, AND FOR
THE TIME BEING, WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL REMAIN MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE, WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLS. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LOWER THE
FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL GRAD
BACK TO THE NNW BY MONDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY
WILL START A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT'S CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CIGS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LLWS TO ENC
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS, A COASTAL
LOW IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 160 MILES SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT, AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NE AT AROUND 20KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE ON THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
REACHING ENC BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NE WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS, POTENTIALLY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF 25-35KT WILL BE COMMON INLAND, WITH
GUSTS OF 40-50KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. CIGS HAVE
STUBBORNLY STAYED AT MVFR OF LATE, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON CIGS FALLING INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. I'VE ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO REFLECT
THE SLOWER ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS. WHILE A TSRA RISK REMAINS,
THE PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW (<20%) THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK WILL SHIFT NW WITH TIME, BUT
MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY FROM KISO TO KPGV.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ENC. GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HAVE EXTENDED GALE WARNINGS THROUGH THE DAY
SUN AND INTO EARLY SUN EVENING. GALE WARNINGS CONT FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT PAMLICO RIVER, WHERE ANY GALES WILL BE FAIRLY
BRIEF TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE SHOWING STORM- FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, HOWEVER PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE FROM THE 11/12Z ECM STILL HOVERS AROUND 40-60% FOR
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50KT OCCURRING, SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY
STORM WARNING PRODUCTS HERE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE WATERS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW, AS TRACK OF LOW
SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF ENC UNDER
STABLE FLOW REGIME, BUT AREAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR SOME CONVECTION TO MIGRATE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND A LOW END THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
GALES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE LOW REMAINING OFFSHORE
WITH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE REMAINING UNDER
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 11-16 FT RANGE AT 10-12 SECONDS.
SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS OF 7-12 FT ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL LOW TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENC WATERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONG WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS INTO SUNDAY EVENING TO CAPTURE THE
COASTAL LOW'S IMPACTS. EVENTUALLY, A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 KT CONTINUING. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 10-15 FT, HIGHEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A RISK ALONG THE
OBX THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. AFTER THIS MORNING, IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, WITH RAINFALL RATES
DECREASING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD RISK TO QUICKLY
DECREASE. WE'LL LET THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE,
AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO LET THAT EXPIRE AT THAT POINT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 315 PM SAT...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED REGARDING THE TRACK BEYOND THAT POINT.
SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS IT INTO ENC, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
OFFSHORE. THIS HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS, WHICH ALSO FACTORS INTO WHAT COASTAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING COASTAL
IMPACTS, BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS STILL HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
HAVE UPGRADED TO CF WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS, AND
SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE MODERATE IMPACTS. SOME MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS ADJ TO THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. COASTAL FLOOD
PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
CRYSTAL COAST, AND AREAS ADJ TO THE PAMLICO/PUNGO RVR...WITH CF
WARNINGS FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
IMPACTED THE GREATEST BY MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE PAST 1-2
MONTHS. PORTIONS OF NC-12 ON OCRACOKE ISLAND ALREADY CLOSED DUE
TO OCEAN OVERWASH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
DUCK TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ046-047.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
195-199.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ081-094-194-195.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ203.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ131-137-230-231.
STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...SGK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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