076
FXUS62 KMHX 181144
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
644 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. A QUICK MOVING FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A WARMING
TREND WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT SERIES OF FRONTS IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVER PAMLICO AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET CO.
- HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO ENC TODAY.
AS OF 230 AM TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF HWY 264. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THESE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TO BE IN PLACE INTO DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT
STILL EXPECTING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE OBX THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN A COLD START TO THE DAY.
AS WE GET LATER INTO THE DAY, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK AND DAMPENING
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN THE
MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ONSHORE AND THEN MORE SERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO
BE A LITTLE HIGHER COMPARED TO MONDAY, GETTING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE OBX. WITH FLOW
BECOMING ONSHORE, MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS IN EARNEST TODAY AND
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
BRINGING A CHANCE AT LIGHT SHOWERS ON WED
- WARM TEMPS ON WED
WEAK AND DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT
LAKES E'WARDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH THIS TROUGH THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES THE SAME, PUSHING OFFSHORE
BY WED EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TRACKS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TUE NIGHT INTO WED
PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY WED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE
THE LIFTING MECHANISM TO PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION MAINLY NORTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. WILL NOTE, WHILE MOST
OF THE CAM GUIDANCE DOES BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF ENC OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING, THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT JUST SCHC TO CHC POP'S IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 IN)
WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SO
DON'T EXPECT MUCH RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS ENC AS THIS LOW AND FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WE
DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY WED AFTERNOON AS THIS LOWS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS ENC. S-SW'RLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO ENC WITH LOWS
TUE NIGHT GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WHILE HIGHS
ON WED GET INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS ENC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY
INTO THIS WEEKEND
- NEXT SET OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WED EVENING ON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK AND DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL THIS WEEKEND
POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF FRONTS AND PRECIP TO ENC.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SPREAD ON
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
ENC BY WED AFTERNOON, IT WONT BE ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH COLD AIR
ADVECTION GIVEN HOW WEAK IT WILL BE. AS A RESULT, EVEN WITH
NE'RLY FLOW EXPECTED, FORECAST LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVG THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND S'RLY FLOW RESUMES.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND COULD
BRING A SERIES OF LOWS AND THEIR FRONTS TO ENC WHICH WOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME PRECIP, THOUGH GIVEN LARGER THAN
AVG UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE
HASHED OUT. FOR NOW KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES AT CHC TO SCHC
STARTING LATE FRI NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING, THOUGH
AS TIMING GETS NAILED DOWN FOR EXACT IMPACTS TO ENC EXPECT THE
PRECIP WINDOW TO SHRINK SOME COMPARED TO WHATS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND
WHATEVER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN AVG TO ABOVE AVG GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
- LLWS CONCERNS LATE TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, ASIDE FROM AN AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
RTES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN RTES. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS ABOVE 3K FT WITH
PROB OF SUB VFR BELOW 35%. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
WHICH MAY BRING LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
07Z, MAINLY AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK SYSTEM TRANSITS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS RTES
WITH LOWER CIGS, HOWEVER GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PRED
VFR EXPECTED, HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS GENERALLY FORECAST INTO THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
OVERALL RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS. HAVE A LOW END <20% CHANCE AT SCA
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WED EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SET OF FRONTS IMPACTS
OUR WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS DRIVING OUR
WEATHER TODAY WITH 5-10 KT NE'RLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS NOTED
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE LIGHT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
THE DAY TO AN E AND THE SE DIRECTION WHILE CHANGING LITTLE IN
SPEED. WINDS THEN TURN TO A SW'RLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 5-15 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHILE SEAS REMAIN AT 1-3
FT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED OVERNIGHT TUE
INTO DAYBREAK WED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH THOUGH MINIMAL IMPACT IS FORECAST FROM THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK: DRY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH AREA WATERS LATE WED
SHIFTING WINDS TO A N-NE'RLY DIRECTION. 5-15 KT WINDS MAY
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING GUSTS UP AROUND 20-25
KTS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHILE SEAS BUILD CLOSER TO 2-4 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A N'RLY SURGE SWEEPS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BECAUSE,
WHILE UNLIKELY THERE IS A NON ZERO THREAT AT SOME LOW END SCA
CONDITIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS AND FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF SERIES OF
STRONGER FRONTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ094-196.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RCF
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