243
FXUS62 KMHX 181919
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
219 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WITH A QUICK MOVING
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING/
AS OF 2 PM TUE...DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE 20S AGAIN, RHS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20-25% RANGE. HOWEVER, THE ABSENCE OF WIND
SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS ROLL IN LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
A QUICK MOVING WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT,
DROPPING A FRONT SOUTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RACES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY HI-RES) CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH MID AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO EEK OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
(30-40% CHANCE) EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, MOSTLY NORTH OF US 264, WITH POINTS
SOUTHWARD LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
AS OF 2 PM TUE... BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WE WILL RETAIN SOME
CLOUDS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SLOW HEATING.
HOWEVER, INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NC WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 70, TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION, WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY
INTO THIS WEEKEND
- NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WED EVENING ON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK AND DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL THIS WEEKEND
POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PRECIP TO ENC.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SPREAD ON
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND S'RLY FLOW
RESUMES. AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ENC WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
PRECIP, THOUGH GIVEN LARGER THAN AVG UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST, EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE HASHED OUT. FOR NOW
KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES AT CHC TO SCHC STARTING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING, THOUGH AS TIMING GETS NAILED
DOWN FOR EXACT IMPACTS TO ENC EXPECT THE PRECIP WINDOW TO SHRINK
SOME COMPARED TO WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND WHATEVER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS
ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS CONTINUE TO AROUND AVERAGE GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1300 TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
- LLWS CONCERNS LATE TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST N OF THE FA CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP EWARD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR FLIGHT CATS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MORE SERLY THIS EVENING, SWERLY OVERNIGHT,
GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NERN RTES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS CIG>FL030 FOR TAF SITES
WITH PROB OF SUB VFR BELOW 35%, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER
OBX. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH MAY BRING LLWS CONCERNS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 07Z, MAINLY AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL SINK THROUGH THE FA
THROUGH WED TURNING WINDS NERLY IN ITS WAKE IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PRED VFR EXPECTED, HOWEVER SELECT GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL
FOR POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL STRATUS SINKING FROM N TO S IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE SOME VIS
CONCERNS WITH PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBVFR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY
PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER.
MARINE
AS OF 2 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS GENERALLY FORECAST INTO THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO THE S/SW AT 10-20 KTS (WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KTS) AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW WINDS
WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE N/NNE AT 10-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT.
OUTLOOK: NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY AT 10-15 KTS, WITH
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SW FRIDAY AT 10-20 KTS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SGK
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