272
FXUS62 KMHX 182350
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WITH A QUICK MOVING
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST HAVE FALLEN QUICKER
THAN FORECAST, LIKELY DUE TO DELAYED SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AS
THE FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE NOT-AS-COOL SHELF WATERS. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY AN EVENTUAL RISE LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE 20S
AGAIN, RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20-25% RANGE. HOWEVER, THE
ABSENCE OF WIND SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS ROLL IN LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
A QUICK MOVING WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT,
DROPPING A FRONT SOUTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RACES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY HI-RES) CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH MID AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO EEK OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
(30-40% CHANCE) EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, MOSTLY NORTH OF US 264, WITH POINTS
SOUTHWARD LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
AS OF 2 PM TUE... BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WE WILL RETAIN SOME
CLOUDS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SLOW HEATING.
HOWEVER, INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NC WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 70, TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION, WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY
INTO THIS WEEKEND
- NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WED EVENING ON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK AND DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL THIS WEEKEND
POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PRECIP TO ENC.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SPREAD ON
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND S'RLY FLOW
RESUMES. AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ENC WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
PRECIP, THOUGH GIVEN LARGER THAN AVG UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST, EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE HASHED OUT. FOR NOW
KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES AT CHC TO SCHC STARTING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING, THOUGH AS TIMING GETS NAILED
DOWN FOR EXACT IMPACTS TO ENC EXPECT THE PRECIP WINDOW TO SHRINK
SOME COMPARED TO WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND WHATEVER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS
ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS CONTINUE TO AROUND AVERAGE GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
- SHRA POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS ENC, LEADING
TO A GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL THEN BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LLWS IMPACTS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF ENC (KISO TO KPGV) LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FURTHER EAST (KOAJ TO KEWN), WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG, LOWERING THE RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS. AHEAD OF, AND
ALONG, THE COLD FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) FROM 09Z-17Z. WHERE SHRA OCCUR, THE
LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR SUB VFR VIS/CIGS. GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY AND LIMITED IMPACTS, I OPTED TO KEEP SHRA OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PRED VFR EXPECTED, HOWEVER SELECT GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL STRATUS SINKING FROM N TO S
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE
SOME VIS CONCERNS WITH PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBVFR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING,
AND EVENTUALLY PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER.
MARINE
AS OF 2 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS GENERALLY FORECAST INTO THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO THE S/SW AT 10-20 KTS (WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KTS) AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW WINDS
WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE N/NNE AT 10-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT.
OUTLOOK: NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY AT 10-15 KTS, WITH
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SW FRIDAY AT 10-20 KTS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...SGK
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