121
FXUS62 KMHX 190705
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A SECONDARY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM WED...PRE-MIDNIGHT LOW WAS OBSERVED FOR MOST AREAS,
BEFORE INC CIRRUS AND AN INC IN LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW ENSUED, WITH
TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
AN AREA OF LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS STILL FCST TO
SWEEP EWRD THROUGH THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR, THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S SWRN ZONES TO 60S
NERN ZONES AS BROAD BUT LIGHT SWRLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 AM WED...REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
ENC LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BANK OF STRATUS WILL
SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS FRONTAL INVERSION
SETS UP. THE CLOUDS AND NNERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
OVERNIGHT, WITH READINGS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT, AND THEN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LINGER INTO THE
DAY, KEEPING WEAK IN-SITU CAD SETUP IN PLACE WITH LINGERING
STRATUS. NAM IS BEST AT CAPTURING THIS REGIME, AND HAVE INC
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED TEMPS AS A RESULT. LATER SHIFTS HAVE
ROOM TO GO A BIT COOLER, ESP IF THE OVC CONDITIONS LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST
FOR MOST LOCALES WITH LIGHT NERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
FRI THROUGH SAT...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW, BUT LATEST
19/00Z ECM CONT TO BE WETTEST AND MAY HAVE TO INC POPS
EVENTUALLY. RAIN AMTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE, AND LITTLE TO
NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, SO KEPT THUNDER MENTION OVER THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WHERE SOME INSTABILITY RESIDES.
SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- LLWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
- SHRA POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 264
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ENC THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW,
ONGOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S'RLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LLWS IMPACTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF ENC (KISO TO KPGV) THIS MORNING. FURTHER EAST
(KOAJ TO KEWN), WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG,
LOWERING THE RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS. AHEAD OF, AND ALONG, THE COLD
FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-40%
CHANCE) FROM 09Z-17Z. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE A PROB30 GROUP AT PGV
BETWEEN 09-12Z AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THIS TAF SITE GIVEN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS.
WHILE NOT EXPECTED, SHOWERS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THEM. SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. COULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
CLOSER TO 06Z ACROSS THE NOBX WHICH WOULD BE OUR NEXT THREAT AT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK SW
ACROSS ENC LIKELY COVERING ALL TAF SITES IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS COULD SEE THIS LOW STRATUS HANG
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW QUICKLY THESE LOW CLOUDS ERODE, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FORECAST TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY.
SHOULD WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE SOME VIS CONCERNS WITH
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND
EVENTUALLY PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER.
MARINE
AS OF 2 AM WED...SWRLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE 5-15 KT
RANGE (10-20 KT OVER THE GULF STREAM). COOL FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TURNING NNERLY
GENERALLY 10-20 KT, WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SCA HEADLINES ATTM. WINDS
TURN SWRLY ON FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOME SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE WELL MIXED GULF WATERS DURING
THIS TIME, WITH REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS/RIVERS REMAINING WELL
BELOW CRITERIA. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY GET TO 6+ FT SOUTH OF AROUND C
HATTERAS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE SWRLY WIND SURGE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL
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