644
FXUS62 KMHX 191141
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
641 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A SECONDARY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM WED...PRE-MIDNIGHT LOW WAS OBSERVED FOR MOST AREAS,
BEFORE INC CIRRUS AND AN INC IN LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW ENSUED, WITH
TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
AN AREA OF LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS STILL FCST TO
SWEEP EWRD THROUGH THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR, THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S SWRN ZONES TO 60S
NERN ZONES AS BROAD BUT LIGHT SWRLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 AM WED...REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
ENC LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BANK OF STRATUS WILL
SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS FRONTAL INVERSION
SETS UP. THE CLOUDS AND NNERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
OVERNIGHT, WITH READINGS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT, AND THEN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LINGER INTO THE
DAY, KEEPING WEAK IN-SITU CAD SETUP IN PLACE WITH LINGERING
STRATUS. NAM IS BEST AT CAPTURING THIS REGIME, AND HAVE INC
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED TEMPS AS A RESULT. LATER SHIFTS HAVE
ROOM TO GO A BIT COOLER, ESP IF THE OVC CONDITIONS LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST
FOR MOST LOCALES WITH LIGHT NERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
FRI THROUGH SAT...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW, BUT LATEST
19/00Z ECM CONT TO BE WETTEST AND MAY HAVE TO INC POPS
EVENTUALLY. RAIN AMTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE, AND LITTLE TO
NO INSTABILITY PRESENT, SO KEPT THUNDER MENTION OVER THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WHERE SOME INSTABILITY RESIDES.
SUN THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 640 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- LLWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
- SHRA POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 264
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF HWY
70 THIS MORNING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF HWY 70. AS A RESULT, DID KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS
FOR PGV THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. AFTERWARDS WE QUICKLY
DRY OUT ACROSS ENC FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF ENC THROUGH THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
REMAIN ABOVE 5-6 KFT THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FORECAST
THIS EVENING. LLWS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS PGV/ISO OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS WELL, WITH STRONG SW'RLY FLOW NOTED ALOFT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT
CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
OAJ/EWN TAFS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS S'WARDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SW'RLY WINDS TO A N'RLY DIRECTION FROM N TO
S. BEHIND THE FRONT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS SW'WARDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FIRST IMPACTING
THE NOBX AND THEN THE TAF TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. FOR NOW
LOWERED CEILINGS TO MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BETWEEN
08-12Z WITH A FEW DECK AT IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AT PGV/ISO. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC BUT OVERALL EXPECTING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON THURS COULD SEE THIS LOW STRATUS HANG AROUND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY
THESE LOW CLOUDS ERODE, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD
WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE SOME VIS CONCERNS WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG AS WELL. YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY
PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER.
MARINE
AS OF 2 AM WED...SWRLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE 5-15 KT
RANGE (10-20 KT OVER THE GULF STREAM). COOL FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TURNING NNERLY
GENERALLY 10-20 KT, WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SCA HEADLINES ATTM. WINDS
TURN SWRLY ON FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOME SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE WELL MIXED GULF WATERS DURING
THIS TIME, WITH REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS/RIVERS REMAINING WELL
BELOW CRITERIA. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY GET TO 6+ FT SOUTH OF AROUND C
HATTERAS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE SWRLY WIND SURGE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL
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