958
FXUS62 KMHX 191901
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ENC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 PM WED...WARM CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
TEMPS ARE NOW INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FARTHER NORTH
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
BOTH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT MODEST CAA WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND, AND LOWER 50S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING, BUT WILL BREAK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH CLOUD
COVER MOST OF THE DAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN NC, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BREAK BY LATE MORNING AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEATING WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AND FINALLY, THE MIDDLE AREA IS
MOST UNCERTAIN, AND HIGHS HERE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUN IS
SEEN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM WED...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR EARLY SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.
FRI THROUGH SAT...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW, FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH MOISTURE
ALONG A WARM FRONT REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AMTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE, BUT PERHAPS SOME AREAS COULD
SEE A WETTING RAIN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH "STRONG" HEATING EXPECTED AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
SUN THROUGH WED...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS
IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO BRING SUB-VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ENC AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 7-10 KFT
WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES BUT MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, GENERALLY REMAINING 10
KTS OR LESS. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SUB- VFR CEILINGS TO MUCH OF ENC. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO REACH AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS OAJ, BUT
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THUS, HAVE OPTED FOR PREVAILING MVFR GROUPS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AS OF THIS CYCLE. WHERE LOW STRATUS SETS IN, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL DROP FURTHER TO IFR (AND POTENTIALLY
LIFR) CONDITIONS, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AMONGST
GUIDANCE REGARDING EXPANSE AND TIMING OF LOW STRATUS, HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY INCLUDE A FEW009 GROUP AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE TAF CYCLES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LOW STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING ACROSS THE NOBX.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD
WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE SOME VIS CONCERNS WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG AS WELL. YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY
PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER.
MARINE
AS OF 2 PM WED...
KEY MESSAGES...
- MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WINDS ARE WSW AT 10-20 KTS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WINDS WILL SURGE TO 20-25 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE N
10-15 KTS TOMORROW. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT, BUT WILL BRIEFLY COME
UP TO 3-5 FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, BUT
THEN QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES
BY THE CAROLINAS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SGK
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