452
FXUS62 KMHX 200003
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ENC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH, WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, HAS ALLOWED FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
QUICKER THAN FORECAST, AND HOURLY TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS FASTER RATE OF FALL. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULDN'T DIFFER MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CLOUDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN, SLOWING THE DROP IN TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT. TEMPS ARE NOW INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FARTHER
NORTH WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
BOTH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT MODEST CAA WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND, AND LOWER 50S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING, BUT WILL BREAK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH CLOUD
COVER MOST OF THE DAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN NC, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BREAK BY LATE MORNING AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEATING WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AND FINALLY, THE MIDDLE AREA IS
MOST UNCERTAIN, AND HIGHS HERE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUN IS
SEEN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM WED...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR EARLY SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.
FRI THROUGH SAT...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW, FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH MOISTURE
ALONG A WARM FRONT REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AMTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE, BUT PERHAPS SOME AREAS COULD
SEE A WETTING RAIN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH "STRONG" HEATING EXPECTED AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
SUN THROUGH WED...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS
IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AM
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW LOW
CIGS GET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF ENC LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, STATISTICAL AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE
MORE MIXED, NOT SHOWING QUITE AS STRONG OF A SIGNAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS REGIME CERTAINLY FAVORS IFR CIGS, BUT BECAUSE
OF THE MIXED SIGNAL IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, I OPTED TO NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS FOR NOW, AND I'LL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SCT IFR LAYER WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KEWN WHERE MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR POTENTIAL.
ON THURSDAY, CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR AND THEN TO
VFR, BUT CLEARING IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS ISN'T ALWAYS HANDLED
WELL IN THE MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS SCATTERING OUT IS LOW TO
MODERATE.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD
WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE SOME VIS CONCERNS WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG AS WELL. YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY
PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER.
MARINE
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON SCHEDULE,
WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 23-27KT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING MARINE
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD, AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE WSW AT 10-20 KTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WINDS WILL
SURGE TO 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE N 10-15 KTS TOMORROW. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT,
BUT WILL BRIEFLY COME UP TO 3-5 FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, BUT
THEN QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES
BY THE CAROLINAS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RM/ZC
MARINE...RM/SGK
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