154
FXUS62 KMHX 200800
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...SECONDARY BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALL BUT PASSED
THROUGH ENC EARLY THIS MORNING. IN IT'S WAKE, FRONTAL INVERSION
STRATUS HAS OOZED SOUTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK COLD
AIR DAMMING WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING, BUT THEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RES CAM'S ARE STUBBORN ON BREAKING OUT INTO
MO SUNNY SKIES, AND WITH WEAK LATE NOV SUN, THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANY AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY
REMAINING IN THE 50S, BUT WHERE SUN BREAKS OUT, MID 60S
POSSIBLE. HAVE FCST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OPTION, WITH MOST AREAS
AROUND THE 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS FCST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM THU...LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND STARS OVERHEAD. CONT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON
FRI, THEN AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MID NEXT WEEK.
FRI THROUGH SAT...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES. ISENTROPIC LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRI AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH. LITTLE ACCUMS EXPECTED AS THE RAIN WILL BE
FALLING THROUGH DRY AIR DOWNSTAIRS, BUT SPOTTY RAIN OR SPRINKLES
THROUGH THE DAY ARE POSSIBLE. ECMWF REMAINS MOST BULLISH ON
RAIN. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND
NEAR CLIMO, IN THE 60S REGION WIDE. ON SAT, ENC IS IN WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE,
BUT PERHAPS SOME AREAS COULD SEE A WETTING RAIN. THUNDER CHANCES
ARE VERY SLIM TO NONE, AND GENERALLY BELOW 15%, AS MODELS CONT
TO ADVERTISE CAPE'S NO HIGHER THAN 150-400 J/KG, AND WILL
RELEGATE TO THE WARMER GULF WATERS.
SUN THROUGH MON...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INTERIOR TO 40S COAST.
TUE THROUGH WED...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY TUE, AND ESP
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, AS SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEP THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME
GOM MOISTURE, AS LAYER STREAMLINES ARE OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
SE CONUS, BUT TIMING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE IRONED
OUT, SO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% POPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPS
REBOUND TO WARMER THAN CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. VFR
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS DECK IS
GRADUALLY OOZING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AS
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. HREF GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY BULLISH FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WHILE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE BEARISH. UPSTREAM
OBS ARE PRIMARILY MVFR WITH IFR CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WHILE CIGS SPREAD OVER THE
TERMINALS BEYOND 07-09Z. WITH STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF DROPS TO IFR ESPECIALLY FOR
TERMINALS EAST AND NORTH, SO DID ADD TEMPOS FOR EWN AND PGV.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT QUICKLY LATE THURS MORNING, AND
ALL TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY THEN WITH WEAKENING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. USUALLY AGGRESSIVE NAM, WHICH LAST RUN HELD
ONTO LOW CIGS ALL DAY, IS NOW ON BOARD WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING BOOSTING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD
WINDS EASE ENOUGH, COULD SEE SOME VIS CONCERNS WITH PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG AS WELL. YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY
PASSING, FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER. HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING, ALTHOUGH TYPICAL
TIMING DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM THU...NRLY SURGE HAS ABATED AND WINDS ARE BELOW 25 KT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. WINDS WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. HIGH
EASES THROUGH ENC OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRI WITH
RETURN SRLY FLOW ENSUING BUT REMAINING LIGHT, 5-15 KT. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
SAT THROUGH MON...SWRLY GRADIENT INC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
AND SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE GOOD MIXING OCCURS. ELSEWHERE, A STOUT MARINE INVERSION
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A 70S AIRMASS ATOP SST'S IN THE 50S AND
60S KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. WINDS TURN NRLY BEHIND
COLD FRONT LATE SAT, WITH SURGE OF BRIEF SCA WINDS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE GULF WATERS, BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH ON
SUN INTO MON.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL
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