022
FXUS62 KMHX 201739
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 3 AM THU...SECONDARY BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALL BUT PASSED
THROUGH ENC EARLY THIS MORNING. IN IT'S WAKE, FRONTAL INVERSION
STRATUS HAS OOZED SOUTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK COLD
AIR DAMMING WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING, BUT THEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RES CAM'S ARE STUBBORN ON BREAKING OUT INTO
MO SUNNY SKIES, AND WITH WEAK LATE NOV SUN, THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANY AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY
REMAINING IN THE 50S, BUT WHERE SUN BREAKS OUT, MID 60S
POSSIBLE. HAVE FCST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OPTION, WITH MOST AREAS
AROUND THE 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS FCST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND STARS OVERHEAD. CONT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON
FRI, THEN AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MID NEXT WEEK.
FRI THROUGH SAT...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES. ISENTROPIC LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRI AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH. LITTLE ACCUMS EXPECTED AS THE RAIN WILL BE
FALLING THROUGH DRY AIR DOWNSTAIRS, BUT SPOTTY RAIN OR SPRINKLES
THROUGH THE DAY ARE POSSIBLE. ECMWF REMAINS MOST BULLISH ON
RAIN. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND
NEAR CLIMO, IN THE 60S REGION WIDE. ON SAT, ENC IS IN WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE,
BUT PERHAPS SOME AREAS COULD SEE A WETTING RAIN. THUNDER CHANCES
ARE VERY SLIM TO NONE, AND GENERALLY BELOW 15%, AS MODELS CONT
TO ADVERTISE CAPE'S NO HIGHER THAN 150-400 J/KG, AND WILL
RELEGATE TO THE WARMER GULF WATERS.
SUN THROUGH MON...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INTERIOR TO 40S COAST.
TUE THROUGH WED...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY TUE, AND ESP
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, AS SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEP THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME
GOM MOISTURE, AS LAYER STREAMLINES ARE OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
SE CONUS, BUT TIMING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE IRONED
OUT, SO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% POPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPS
REBOUND TO WARMER THAN CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70/I-42
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
LOW STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUES TO
LINGER NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THAT THE LINGERING LOW CEILINGS WILL SOON LIFT FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES THROUGH 19Z; HOWEVER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CALM WINDS AND
ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTH OF HIGHWAY
70/I-42. THIS WOULD BRING SUB-VFR VIS TO PGV AND ISO. GUIDANCE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH
TO EWN/OAJ. ADDITIONALLY, MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS BUILD IN THICKER AND/OR QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED, THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG MAY BE TEMPERED.
SHOULD CLOUDS BE SLOWER/THINNER, FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER
AND MAY BRING IFR TO LIFR VIS. HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARDS
LOWER VIS THIS CYCLE, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, HAVE ONLY
INTRODUCED MVFR VIS FOR PGV/ISO.
WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE,
BUT WAA ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, INCLUDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED AGAINST ANY INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AS OF
THIS CYCLE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS.
OUTLOOK: YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY PASSING,
FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER. HIGHEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING, ALTHOUGH TYPICAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM THU...NRLY SURGE HAS ABATED AND WINDS ARE BELOW 25 KT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. WINDS WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. HIGH
EASES THROUGH ENC OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRI WITH
RETURN SRLY FLOW ENSUING BUT REMAINING LIGHT, 5-15 KT. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
SAT THROUGH MON...SWRLY GRADIENT INC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
AND SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE GOOD MIXING OCCURS. ELSEWHERE, A STOUT MARINE INVERSION
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A 70S AIRMASS ATOP SST'S IN THE 50S AND
60S KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. WINDS TURN NRLY BEHIND
COLD FRONT LATE SAT, WITH SURGE OF BRIEF SCA WINDS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE GULF WATERS, BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH ON
SUN INTO MON.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL
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