964
FXUS62 KMHX 210613
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
113 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NC TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 2 PM THU...WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ENC. LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS REMAIN CHILLY AND IN THE
MID 50S. FARTHER SOUTH, SUNSHINE RETURNED LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN TO THE LOWS 60S, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
THIS EVENING UNTIL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW THICK CLOUD COVER BECOMES TONIGHT WILL BE A DETERMINING
FACTOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT, SINCE
OTHERWISE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DENSER FOG IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/THINNER OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND,
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 2 PM THU...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO ENC FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW MORNING, MAKING FOR A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST/WEST ORIENTATED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT THROUGH
THE DAY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE US 264 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH IT
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN IS SEEN, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
70 COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF US 64 REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DREARY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND IS THE MOST IN QUESTION, WITH UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S LIKELY, BUT THERE IS BUST POTENTIAL BOTH UP AND
DOWN HERE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 PM THU...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SAT
THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
SAT...ON SAT, ENC IS IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH. KEPT POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMTS DO
NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE, BUT PERHAPS SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
WETTING RAIN. COULD STILL SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IF
SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH AND UTILIZES THE MODEST
INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SUN THROUGH MON...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INTERIOR TO 40S COAST.
TUE THROUGH WED...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY TUE, AND ESP
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, AS SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEP THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME
GOM MOISTURE, AS LAYER STREAMLINES ARE OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
SE CONUS, BUT TIMING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE IRONED
OUT, SO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% POPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPS
REBOUND TO WARMER THAN CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND WEST OF HWY 17
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
- LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING AS WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING, WHILE WEAK
AREA OF ELEVATED ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL QUICKLY MAKES
ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR
WEST. THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MVFR, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE
BEEN FREQUENT BOUNCES TO VFR AND THEN IFR WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED.
TRANSITORY FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. AFTER SUNRISE, CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT MVFR WITH
INCREASING RAIN RISK AS WAA STRENGTHENS ATOP THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. SOME BRIEF DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY
MENTION IN TAFS THIS CYCLE. DID ADD PROB30S TO ALL TERMINALS
GIVEN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FROM 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE.
RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING TAF TERMINALS NO LATER
THAN 19Z, ALTHOUGH MVFR WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF EWN. PREDOMINANTLY VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT
WITH UPTICK OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
OUTLOOK: YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY PASSING,
FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER. HIGHEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. VFR LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 2 PM THU...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, BEFORE REBUILDING OUT OF THE SW TOMORROW AT
10-15 KTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT, AND WILL BECOME SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE
MARINE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WINDS SWITCH TO N 15-25
KTS BEHIND IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE
TO 3-5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF 6 FOOT SEAS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING N 10-20 KTS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AT 10-20 KTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...SGK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page