850
FXUS62 KMHX 211118
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
618 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH ENC TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 6 AM FRI...AREA OF RAIN CONT TO MARCH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM THE EASTERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS RANGE
FROM 40-70%, HIGHEST ACRS NRN HALF OF THE FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AROUND 0.10".
PREV DISC... AS OF 3 AM FRI...INC ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURING
THIS MORNING, WITH RAIN BREAKING OUT ACRS CTRL AND WRN NC. THIS
AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EWRD THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH ENC. HAVE INC RAIN
CHANCES MARKEDLY FOR THE FA, ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF, WHERE BEST
LIFT WILL BE REALIZED. HAVE INC SKY COVER TO MO CLOUDY TO OVC,
AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALL AREAS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE, AND HAVE DEC TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 FOR THE SOUTH, WHERE LITTLE RAIN WILL OCCUR, TO AROUND
60 NORTH, WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL
FALL, ALONG WITH LOWERED CIGS HANGING ON ALL AFTERNOON IN WAKE
OF THE RAIN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM FRI...THE AREA BECOMES MOSTLY DRY SLOTTED TONIGHT AS
ALL OF ENC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND
SFC FORCING WEST OF THE REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME, AND HELD ONTO A 20% POP MOST AREAS.
VERY WARM AND MUGGY FOR LATE NOV AND TEMPS GENERALLY REMAINING
IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS MAY CREEP UP THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT AS SWRLY BREEZES INC TO 5-10 MPH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2 PM THU...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SAT
THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
SAT...ON SAT, ENC IS IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH. KEPT POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMTS DO
NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE, BUT PERHAPS SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
WETTING RAIN. COULD STILL SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IF
SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH AND UTILIZES THE MODEST
INSTABILITY PRESENT. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF A PGV TO EWN TO MRH LINE WHERE THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF
QUICKLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.
SUN THROUGH MON...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INTERIOR TO 40S COAST.
TUE THROUGH WED...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY TUE, AND ESP
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, AS SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEP THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME
GOM MOISTURE, AS LAYER STREAMLINES ARE OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
SE CONUS, BUT TIMING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE IRONED
OUT, SO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% POPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPS
REBOUND TO WARMER THAN CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
THANKSGIVING DAY...SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE, AS 21/00Z GUIDANCE
AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY WED NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED NO HIGHER THAN 20% WITH
NEAR CLIMO HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
AFTER SOME BRIEF INSTANCES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS, TERMINALS ARE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS MORNING UNDER A THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. THE EXCEPTION IS PGV, WHICH HAS BEEN AT MVFR ALL NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AT MVFR THROUGH TODAY. RAIN RISK IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH RADAR HAVING INITIAL
BROKEN BAND JUST WEST OF RWI-GWW LINE. PRECIP LIKELY WILL BE
ONGOING BY 12Z AT COASTAL PLAIN TERMINALS, LASTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE, ADDED PREVAILING -RA TO ALL
FORECASTS.
RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING TAF TERMINALS NO LATER
THAN 19Z, ALTHOUGH MVFR WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF EWN. PREDOMINANTLY VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT
WITH UPTICK OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
OUTLOOK: YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A SERIES OF APPROACHING, AND EVENTUALLY PASSING,
FRONTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER. HIGHEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. VFR LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SRN AND CTRL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
TODAY...LIGHT/VBL WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SRLY TODAY AS WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SEAS CONT 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...SWRLY GRADIENT INC AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL SEE WINDS INC TO 15-25 KT G 30 KT OVER THE MIXED GULF
WATERS, WHERE SCA IS IN EFFECT NOW. ELSEWHERE, MARINE INVERSION
IN PLACE WITH THE WARM AIRMASS OVERSPREADING COOLER SHELF AND
SOUND WATERS, WHERE WINDS OF 10-15 KT G 20 KT EXPECTED. THE
SWRLY FLOW LINGERS INTO SAT.
SAT NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH WITH NRLY WIND SURGE
EXPECTED 15-25 KT ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS. IT APPEARS THE WIND
SURGE MAY BE BRIEF ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SCA ISSUE ELSEWHERE (< 6
HRS), BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY EXPANSION
TO SCA SUITE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IMPROVING WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WITH
SUB SCA EXPECTED, WHICH WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page