088
FXUS62 KMHX 211950
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH ENC
THE REST OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WARM FRONT HAS REMAINED PINNED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NC COAST TODAY, BUT IS FINALLY MAKING SOME NORTHWARD
PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 70 ARE
STARTING TO SEE SUN BREAKING OUT, AND THOUGH IT HAS BEEN CHILLY
SO FAR TODAY, THESE AREAS COULD QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUN SETS. FARTHER NORTH, CLEARING
WILL COME TOO LATE, AND THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALL OF ENC WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PARTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND A STRENGTHENING SW
BREEZE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT, CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING
COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP, WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT
IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW AND DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL
CROSS THROUGH ENC IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT IT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH PRECIP
CHANCES 20-40%, AND THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% CHANCE)
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, AND
THERE COULD EVEN BE A RISK FOR A STRONGER TO SEVERE STORM WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE BY MID
NEXT WEEK.
SUN THROUGH MON...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INTERIOR TO 40S COAST.
TUE THROUGH WED...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY TUE, AND ESP
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, AS SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEP THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME
GOM MOISTURE, AS LAYER STREAMLINES ARE OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
SE CONUS, BUT TIMING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE IRONED
OUT, SO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% POPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPS
REBOUND TO WARMER THAN CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE, AS
GUIDANCE AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH A
CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE BY WED NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED NO HIGHER
THAN 20% WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS, WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
- FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
ENC AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EARLY
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO EXIT ENC FROM WEST TO EAST AS OF
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION. CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR FOR OAJ/EWN, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RISING CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LINGER LARGELY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 70. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
EVENING.
WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS, GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF ENC AFTER DARK
TONIGHT, WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 20-40% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE
TRENDED TAFS TOWARDS SUB-VFR VIS CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS OF
THIS CYCLE, EXCEPT OAJ WHERE FOG POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS
MORE LIMITED.
WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 6-9 UTC TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
MIX OUT FOG, BUT PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER WHERE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE OR IN MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS ENC FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND AND AFTER DAWN ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN,
BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING REGARDING TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS, HAVE OPTED AGAINST INCLUDING ANY
PREVAILING GROUPS AS OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY AS
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
AS OF 3 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTH, AND SW WINDS AT
10-20 KTS TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW/SW AT
10-20 KTS EVERYWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, AND WILL BECOME
SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS SWITCH TO N 15-25 KTS
BEHIND IT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE
TO 3-5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF 6 FOOT SEAS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING N 10-20 KTS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AT 10-20 KTS, AND
STRENGTHENING TO SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SGK
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