314
FXUS62 KMHX 220541
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1241 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH ENC
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 650 PM FRI...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH EVENTUALLY ALL OF ENC
GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH PARTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND A STRENGTHENING SW BREEZE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT, ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT,
CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING COULD ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG,
WITH VSBYS GRAD IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
STRONGER SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW AND DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL
CROSS THROUGH ENC IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT IT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH PRECIP
CHANCES 20-40%, AND THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% CHANCE) SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, AND THERE COULD
EVEN BE A RISK FOR A STRONGER TO SEVERE STORM WITH PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...MAINLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE BY MID
NEXT WEEK.
SUN THROUGH MON...HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND AVG
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S INTERIOR TO 40S COAST.
TUE THROUGH WED...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY TUE, AND ESP
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, AS SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEP THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME
GOM MOISTURE, AS LAYER STREAMLINES ARE OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE
SE CONUS, BUT TIMING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE IRONED
OUT, SO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% POPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPS
REBOUND TO WARMER THAN CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE, AS
GUIDANCE AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH A
CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE BY WED NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED NO HIGHER
THAN 20% WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
ENC AGAIN THIS MORNING
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY
ALL OF EASTERN NC TERMINALS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN UNDER VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LIFT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH AN UPTICK OF WIND ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT, AS WELL AS UPTICK IN LIGHT RAIN WHICH WILL HELP MIX FOG
OUT. LEANED TOWARDS HREF GUIDANCE AS LAMP APPEARS TO BE HANGING
ONTO VISIBILITIES ERRONEOUSLY TOO LONG GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS FOR EASTERN NC ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY FROM DAWN TO AROUND 15-16Z. GUIDANCE THEN
FAVORS A BRIEF DRY SPELL BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM) DEVELOP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO NEAR TERMINALS
AROUND 00Z. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, RESURGENCE OF LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME FOG POTENTIAL, AS MOISTURE
POOLS UNDERNEATH A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION.
OUTLOOK: LOW STRATUS AND FOG THREAT LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SURGE OF DRY AIR WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS OUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 805 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ISSUED DENSE FOG ADV FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. VSBYS WILL GRAD IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTH, AND SW WINDS
AT 10-20 KTS TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW/SW AT
10-20 KTS EVERYWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, AND WILL BECOME
SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS SWITCH TO N 15-25 KTS
BEHIND IT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE
TO 3-5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF 6 FOOT SEAS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING N 10-20 KTS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AT 10-20 KTS, AND
STRENGTHENING TO SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ131-150-230-231.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ135>137-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CQD/SGK
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