037
FXUS62 KMHX 230800
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE SRN COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW STRAY ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS HUGGING
THE CRYSTAL COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MORNING STRATUS DISSIPATES. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSER TO CLIMO TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE,
WITH LOW 60S OBX ADJACENT TO THE COOLER WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EVEN
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO MID 40S COAST (AROUND 50 OBX). DRIER
AIRMASS AND LIGHT NNWRLY BREEZES WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
FORMATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MONDAY AND
SLIDES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPS ON TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUE
EVE AND CONTINUES INTO WED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS ARE UNFORTUNATELY
A BIT DRIER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS BULK OF ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH AND WEST OF ENC. ATTM INSTABILITY IS QUITE MEAGER, SO ONLY
SLGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SHOWERS/ISO STORMS WILL BE WED AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THANSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
BUILD IN, WITH COOLEST READINGS OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE.
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL SEE A RETURN BACK TO 50S FOR MAX T'S, WITH
READINGS NEAR FREEZING AT NIGHT. LOW 50S AT BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRI, WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE MAINLAND FRI NIGHT,
WITH 30S TO NEAR 40 OBX ZONES.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STRATUS LINGERS THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE.
- VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS MORNING
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW SOUTH OF TERMINALS. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS STRATUS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED
UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. CIGS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
SCOUR OUT WITH DRY AIR BUILDING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST. LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SCOURING OUT CIGS A LITTLE TOO
AGGRESSIVELY, AND LEANED TOWARDS A MORE PESSIMISTIC HREF CLOSER
IN LINE TO THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF 5
KT OR LESS. VFR REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z.
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP MID WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM SUN...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT WINDS AROUND
TO NRLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT.
TODAY...NRLY FLOW EASES AND BACKS NWRLY AS HIGH BUILDS IN. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT. TONIGHT WINDS START OUT LIGHT IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE, BUT THEN REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS RAMPING BACK UP TO 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. MAY
SEE SOME OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER GULF
WATERS, BUT NOT FREQUENT OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SCA
HEADLINES.
MONDAY...REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. WINDS VEER ERLY MON NIGHT IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH S
TO SWLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL PEAK ON WED JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW POST FRONTAL FLOW IN THE
10-20 KT RANGE, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER FOR A TIME
AND INDUCING SCA HEADLINES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL
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