604
FXUS62 KMHX 231729
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 6 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH AM UPDATE. LOW STRATUS SHIELD
ERODING FROM E TO W ACRS THE CTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA, AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MO SUNNY ALL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH WARM AND
PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISC... AS OF 3 AM SUN...SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE
SRN COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW STRAY ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS HUGGING THE CRYSTAL COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MORNING STRATUS
DISSIPATES. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO TODAY, GENERALLY IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE, WITH LOW 60S OBX ADJACENT TO THE COOLER
WATERS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EVEN
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO MID 40S COAST (AROUND 50 OBX). DRIER
AIRMASS AND LIGHT NNWRLY BREEZES WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
FORMATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MONDAY AND
SLIDES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPS ON TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUE
EVE AND CONTINUES INTO WED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS ARE UNFORTUNATELY
A BIT DRIER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS BULK OF ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH AND WEST OF ENC. ATTM INSTABILITY IS QUITE MEAGER, SO ONLY
SLGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SHOWERS/ISO STORMS WILL BE WED AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
BUILD IN, WITH COOLEST READINGS OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE.
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL SEE A RETURN BACK TO 50S FOR MAX T'S, WITH
READINGS NEAR FREEZING AT NIGHT. LOW 50S AT BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRI, WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE MAINLAND FRI NIGHT,
WITH 30S TO NEAR 40 OBX ZONES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COOLER, DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DRY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR, COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND PRECLUDE ANY FOG RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, BACKING TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TO NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP MID WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM SUN...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT WINDS AROUND
TO NRLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT.
TODAY...NRLY FLOW EASES AND BACKS NWRLY AS HIGH BUILDS IN. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT. TONIGHT WINDS START OUT LIGHT IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE, BUT THEN REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS RAMPING BACK UP TO 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. MAY
SEE SOME OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER GULF
WATERS, BUT NOT FREQUENT OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SCA
HEADLINES.
MONDAY...REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. WINDS VEER EASTERLY MON NIGHT
IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. COULD SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR
THE GULF STREAM, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL PEAK ON
WED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW POST FRONTAL
FLOW IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER
FOR A TIME AND INDUCING SCA HEADLINES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL
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