204
FXUS62 KMHX 231846
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
146 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL SEE THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COAST, PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND WILL SEE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIKELY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30/LOWER
40S AWAY FROM THE COAST, TO AROUND 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST, COOLEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX WITH NORTHERNLY ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS ARE UNFORTUNATELY A BIT DRIER
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS BULK OF ENERGY LIFTS NORTH AND
WEST OF ENC. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY SHOWERS/ISO STORMS WILL BE WED AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THANKSGIVING
DAY WILL SEE A RETURN HIGH TEMPS BACK TO 50S, WITH READINGS
AROUND FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S FRIDAY, WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE
MAINLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH 30S TO NEAR 40 OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COOLER, DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DRY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR, COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND PRECLUDE ANY FOG RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, BACKING TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TO NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP MID WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH N TO NE WINDS MAINLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS AROUND 3-4 FT. WINDS BACK TO W TO NW AROUND 5-10 KT LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS RAMPING BACK UP TO 10-20 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT. MAY SEE SOME OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS, BUT NOT FREQUENT OR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SCA HEADLINES.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN MONDAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BRINGING VEERING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. COULD SEE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW POST FRONTAL FLOW
IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT OR HIGHER FOR
A TIME AND INDUCING SCA HEADLINES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SK
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