745
FXUS62 KMHX 240722
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
222 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY, THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH, OR
WEAK COASTAL LOW, TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ENC EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN STALL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH. WEAK CAA BEHIND THIS
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT A TOUCH COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT NOT DRASTICALLY SO.
BY TONIGHT, THE STALLED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SOMETIMES GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK WITH LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE RETURN FLOW REGIMES, AND THIS WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS ARE
SLOWER TO RETURN, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE, AND VICE-VERSA IF CLOUDS MOVE IN QUICKER. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT, THEN SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THE CRYSTAL COAST NORTH THROUGH HATTERAS, A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
A NOTABLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP ENCOURAGE A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH ENC TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS REGIME IS A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT. BOTH GLOBAL AND HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOW A SOLID
SIGNAL FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ITS TRACK. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE IS THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT AND
COASTAL LOW (IE. TUESDAY VS TUESDAY EVENING). TIMING ASIDE,
WHENEVER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, IT IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH
INCREASING, AND NOTABLE, LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1-
1.25"), AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 250-500J/KG). THE
COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK INSTABILITY,
AND NOTABLE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND COASTAL LOW. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THE
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY, PLUS WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING,
SHOULD LIMIT ANY STRONG/SEVERE RISK.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUDCOVER ON TUESDAY,
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVEN THE "COLDEST"
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. ASSUMING SOME
BREAKS IN THE SUN, HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO A VERY MILD NIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING
A NOTABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS ENC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONE MORE
DAY OF ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 90%, OR GREATER, CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF ENC. BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE, A FEW AREAS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH 80 DEGREES. HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD SUPPORT A PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 500+
J/KG LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF ENC, WITH SOME GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWING A VERY LOW RISK OF EVEN SEEING SHOWERS, LET ALONE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG THE FRONT. IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION MANAGES
TO DEVELOP, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, AND THIS IS SHOWN IN SOME
MACHINE LEARNING AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. STAY TUNED IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO
INCREASE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY
ACROSS ENC. BY FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S FOR HIGHS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S. BY THEN, WE WILL BE PAST THE
ENDING OF OUR LOCAL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM, AND COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
OF NOTE, BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, PLUS ONGOING DROUGHT,
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR FIRE PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE
MINDFUL OF THE CONDITIONS.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, WITH A WARMING AND MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATE BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG OBSERVED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH OBS BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR, MVFR, AND IFR GIVEN
THE TRANSIENT AND SHALLOW NATURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH GENERALLY NON-IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DESPITE ASOS/AWOS GIVING SUB-VFR OBS. LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE FOR STILL SHALLOW, BUT MAYBE A BIT MORE IMPACTFUL FOG IS
ALONG ONSLOW, CARTERET, SOUTHERN CRAVEN, AND JONES COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS MORE RESIDENCE TIME OF CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE
TEMPO DROPS TO IFR EXTENDING UNTIL 13Z FOR KOAJ. CONSIDERING FOG
WILL BE SHALLOW, AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS PARKED ABOVE IT, IT
WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP, LEADING TO A VFR
DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BE VFR WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ALONG
THE COAST, SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH AREA WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY NORTH WINDS OF 10-15KT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY BY TONIGHT, THEN
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS LOW MARKS
THE LIKELY BEGINNING OF A RISK OF 25KT WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
20-25KT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THIS LOW, BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS, MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE ENC WATERS FOR TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
OF 1-3FT THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD ON TUESDAY,
REACHING 3-5FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF 25KT+ WINDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FLIPPING
AROUND TO THE NW. PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY
TO REACH 25KT, OR HIGHER, GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS LAYING
DOWN TO 5-15KT. FOR PLANNING, THE BEST BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RM
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