864
FXUS62 KMHX 241818
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
118 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY, THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH, OR
WEAK COASTAL LOW, TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ENC EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN STALL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH. WEAK CAA BEHIND THIS
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT A TOUCH COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT NOT DRASTICALLY SO.
BY TONIGHT, THE STALLED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SOMETIMES GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK WITH LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE RETURN FLOW REGIMES, AND THIS WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS ARE
SLOWER TO RETURN, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE, AND VICE-VERSA IF CLOUDS MOVE IN QUICKER. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT, THEN SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THE CRYSTAL COAST NORTH THROUGH HATTERAS, A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
A NOTABLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP ENCOURAGE A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH ENC TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS REGIME IS A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT. BOTH GLOBAL AND HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOW A SOLID
SIGNAL FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ITS TRACK. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE IS THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT AND
COASTAL LOW (IE. TUESDAY VS TUESDAY EVENING). TIMING ASIDE,
WHENEVER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, IT IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH
INCREASING, AND NOTABLE, LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1-
1.25"), AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 250-500J/KG). THE
COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK INSTABILITY,
AND NOTABLE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND COASTAL LOW. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THE
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY, PLUS WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING,
SHOULD LIMIT ANY STRONG/SEVERE RISK.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUDCOVER ON TUESDAY,
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVEN THE "COLDEST"
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. ASSUMING SOME
BREAKS IN THE SUN, HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO A VERY MILD NIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING
A NOTABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS ENC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONE MORE
DAY OF ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 90%, OR GREATER, CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF ENC. BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE, A FEW AREAS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH 80 DEGREES. HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD SUPPORT A PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 500+
J/KG LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF ENC, WITH SOME GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWING A VERY LOW RISK OF EVEN SEEING SHOWERS, LET ALONE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG THE FRONT. IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION MANAGES
TO DEVELOP, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, AND THIS IS SHOWN IN SOME
MACHINE LEARNING AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. STAY TUNED IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO
INCREASE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY
ACROSS ENC. BY FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S FOR HIGHS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S. BY THEN, WE WILL BE PAST THE
ENDING OF OUR LOCAL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM, AND COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
OF NOTE, BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, PLUS ONGOING DROUGHT,
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR FIRE PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE
MINDFUL OF THE CONDITIONS.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, WITH A WARMING AND MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATE BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RTES TODAY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONDITIONS THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THAT
COULD BRING SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE AGAIN. LIKE LAST NIGHT, ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MUCH IMPACTS TO AVIATION. GUIDANCE INDICATING PROBABILITIES FOR
SUB VFR CONDITIONS LESS THAN 25% BUT IT OFTEN DOESN'T NOT PICK
UP ON SHALLOW FOG. WITH THIS IN MIND, INTRODUCED MIFG IN THE
TAFS WITH 6SM VSBYS. NEXT, STCU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT, FIRST ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES THEN SPREADING
NWD ACROSS THE REST OF ENC THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN AROUND 2500-3000 FT THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN SO KEPT SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAFS ATTM AND WILL LET LATER
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT
ALSO COULD SEE LOW STATUS OR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING 20-40% PROBS FOR SUB-
VFR. THERE IS ALSO A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH AREA WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY NORTH WINDS OF 10-15KT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY BY TONIGHT, THEN
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS LOW MARKS
THE LIKELY BEGINNING OF A RISK OF 25KT WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
20-25KT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THIS LOW, BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS, MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE ENC WATERS FOR TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
OF 1-3FT THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD ON TUESDAY,
REACHING 3-5FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF 25KT+ WINDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FLIPPING
AROUND TO THE NW. PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY
TO REACH 25KT, OR HIGHER, GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS LAYING
DOWN TO 5-15KT. FOR PLANNING, THE BEST BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RM
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