361
FXUS62 KMHX 241940
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH, OR WEAK COASTAL LOW, TO MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT NE'RLY FLOW,
AND TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A RATHER PLEASANT NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS
ENC.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ALLOWING FLOW
TO BECOME E AND THEN SE'RLY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A COASTAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN NEARING THE
COAST BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SE'RLY
FLOW FORECAST TONIGHT, RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN EARNEST ALLOWING FOR
STEADILY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENC WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, GUIDANCE DOES OVERDO MOISTENING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OCCASIONALLY. AS A RESULT WE COULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
ACROSS ENC WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOWS TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS GIVEN THE CURRENT FORCAST EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MO
CLOUDY ACROSS ENC NEAR DAYBREAK TUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS
TO ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE OBX. FOR COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE CRYSTAL COAST
NORTH THROUGH HATTERAS, A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POP'S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM MON...
GENERAL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. WE COULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE MORNING AS A COASTAL
TROUGH SWINGS INLAND. OTHERWISE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE
AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE
DEVELOPING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP
ENCOURAGE A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THIS REGIME IS A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG THE ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW TO TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ENC. AS THE FRONT/LOW MOVES THROUGH ENC IT WILL ALSO
OVERLAP WITH INCREASING, AND NOTABLE, LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
(PWATS OF 1- 1.25"), AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF
250-500J/KG). WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THE LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY, PLUS WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING, SHOULD LIMIT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE RISK. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES TO SEE ANY PRECIP NOTED ALONG THE OBX AND OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUDCOVER ON TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MOD
70S WHILE LOWS NLY DIP DOWN INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING
A NOTABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS ENC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONE MORE
DAY OF ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 90%, OR GREATER, CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF ENC. BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE, A FEW AREAS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH 80 DEGREES. HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD SUPPORT A PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 500+
J/KG LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF ENC, WITH SOME GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWING A VERY LOW RISK OF EVEN SEEING SHOWERS, LET ALONE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG THE FRONT. IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION MANAGES
TO DEVELOP, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, AND THIS IS SHOWN IN SOME
MACHINE LEARNING AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. STAY TUNED IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO
INCREASE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY
ACROSS ENC. BY FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S FOR HIGHS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S. BY THEN, WE WILL BE PAST THE
ENDING OF OUR LOCAL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM, AND COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
OF NOTE, BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, PLUS ONGOING DROUGHT,
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR FIRE PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE
MINDFUL OF THE CONDITIONS.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, WITH A WARMING AND MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATE BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RTES TODAY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONDITIONS THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THAT
COULD BRING SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE AGAIN. LIKE LAST NIGHT, ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MUCH IMPACTS TO AVIATION. GUIDANCE INDICATING PROBABILITIES FOR
SUB VFR CONDITIONS LESS THAN 25% BUT IT OFTEN DOESN'T NOT PICK
UP ON SHALLOW FOG. WITH THIS IN MIND, INTRODUCED MIFG IN THE
TAFS WITH 6SM VSBYS. NEXT, STCU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT, FIRST ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES THEN SPREADING
NWD ACROSS THE REST OF ENC THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN AROUND 2500-3000 FT THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN SO KEPT SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAFS ATTM AND WILL LET LATER
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT
ALSO COULD SEE LOW STATUS OR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING 20-40% PROBS FOR SUB-
VFR. THERE IS ALSO A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS
TO OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD 5-15 KT NE'RLY WINDS
AND 2-4 FT SEAS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BECOME E AND THEN SE'RLY OVERNIGHT REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
SHOWER CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE COATSAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW, A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
LOW MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A RISK OF 25KT WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THIS LOW.
REGARDLESS, MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE COASTAL ENC WATERS FOR TUESDAY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD AS THE WINDS BUILD TO 3-5 TO 4-6 FT. TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF 25KT+ WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FLIPPING AROUND TO THE NW.
PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25KT, OR HIGHER,
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS LAYING DOWN TO 5-15KT. FOR PLANNING, THE
BEST BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY THANKS TO
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RM/RCF
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