874
FXUS62 KMHX 250514
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1214 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH, OR WEAK COASTAL LOW, TO MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ALLOWING FLOW TO
BECOME E AND THEN SE'RLY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A COASTAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN NEARING THE
COAST BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
SE'RLY FLOW FORECAST TONIGHT, RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN EARNEST
ALLOWING FOR STEADILY INCREASING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MO CLOUDY ACROSS ENC NEAR
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX EARLY TONIGHT,
WITH TEMPS LEVELING OFF FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE CRYSTAL COAST NORTH THROUGH
HATTERAS, A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE ABOVE- MENTIONED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERAL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. WE COULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE MORNING AS A COASTAL
TROUGH SWINGS INLAND. OTHERWISE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE
AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE
DEVELOPING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP
ENCOURAGE A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THIS REGIME IS A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG THE ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW TO TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ENC. AS THE FRONT/LOW MOVES THROUGH ENC IT WILL ALSO
OVERLAP WITH INCREASING, AND NOTABLE, LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
(PWATS OF 1- 1.25"), AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF
250-500J/KG). WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THE LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY, PLUS WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING, SHOULD LIMIT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE RISK. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES TO SEE ANY PRECIP NOTED ALONG THE OBX AND OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUDCOVER ON TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MOD
70S WHILE LOWS NLY DIP DOWN INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING
A NOTABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS ENC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONE MORE
DAY OF ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 90%, OR GREATER, CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF ENC. BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE, A FEW AREAS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH 80 DEGREES. HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD SUPPORT A PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 500+
J/KG LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF ENC, WITH SOME GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWING A VERY LOW RISK OF EVEN SEEING SHOWERS, LET ALONE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG THE FRONT. IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION MANAGES
TO DEVELOP, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, AND THIS IS SHOWN IN SOME
MACHINE LEARNING AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. STAY TUNED IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO
INCREASE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY
ACROSS ENC. BY FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S FOR HIGHS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S. BY THEN, WE WILL BE PAST THE
ENDING OF OUR LOCAL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM, AND COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
OF NOTE, BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, PLUS ONGOING DROUGHT,
MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR FIRE PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE
MINDFUL OF THE CONDITIONS.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, WITH A WARMING AND MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATE BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 12 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO SE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THAT COULD BRING SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE
AGAIN. LIKE LAST NIGHT, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT TO AVIATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, KEPT MIFG IN THE TAFS WITH 6SM VSBYS.
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT,
FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST THEN SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE
REST OF ENC THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD BASES WILL BE 3000-3500 FT ALONG AND EAST OF US 17, WITH
MORE SCATTERED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN VFR REMAINING PREDOMINANT INLAND, BUT COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN AT VFR FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR
CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT
ALSO COULD SEE LOW STATUS OR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING 20-40% PROBS FOR SUB-
VFR. THERE IS ALSO A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS
TO OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD 5-15 KT NE'RLY WINDS
AND 2-4 FT SEAS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BECOME E AND THEN SE'RLY OVERNIGHT REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
SHOWER CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW, A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
LOW MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A RISK OF 25KT WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THIS LOW.
REGARDLESS, MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE COASTAL ENC WATERS FOR TUESDAY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD AS THE WINDS BUILD TO 3-5 TO 4-6 FT. TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF 25KT+ WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FLIPPING AROUND TO THE NW.
PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25KT, OR HIGHER,
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS LAYING DOWN TO 5-15KT. FOR PLANNING, THE
BEST BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY THANKS TO
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1210 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EASTERN NC HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH A LONG DURATION OF LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL. WHILE RAIN CHANCES EXIST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DO LITTLE TO
IMPROVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ON A LARGE SCALE. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW 35% WHILE WIND GUSTS REACH
NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
AND DECREASING GREENERY AS THE FALL SEASON PROGRESSES, WE WILL
SEE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL TRULY BE AND
HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RM/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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