405
FXUS62 KMHX 250635
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND
DURING THE DAY TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT NOTHING
LOOKS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A TEMPORARY LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LATER TODAY AND, ESPECIALLY, THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE GLANCING WAVE, INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT, MODEST WAA, AND INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING MAY
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE LACK
OF STRONGER LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK.
DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, HIGHS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CONTINUED WAA WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
ENC WILL BE WARM-SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT PLUS SHALLOW MIXING INTO THE LOWER REACHES OF A STRONG
SW LLJ SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE.
DESPITE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILDING INSTABILITY,
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED OFF
TO THE NW AND N OF ENC, WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE RISK OF DEEP
CONVECTION, AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK LOW. IN FACT,
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SIGNAL DOESN'T LOOK THAT GOOD
FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. THIS COULD SETUP ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING,
USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WILL ALSO SPELL THE END OF ANY RAINFALL CHANCES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING
A MUCH COLDER, AND VERY DRY, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHOULD SETUP A COUPLE OF NIGHTS OF EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SUPPORTING BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S INLAND, AND 30S ALONG THE
COAST. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER DURING THE THURSDAY
- SATURDAY PERIOD, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE COLD AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THIS TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN
FAVORS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE
AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH A MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 12 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO SE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THAT COULD BRING SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE
AGAIN. LIKE LAST NIGHT, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT TO AVIATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, KEPT MIFG IN THE TAFS WITH 6SM VSBYS.
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT,
FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST THEN SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE
REST OF ENC THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD BASES WILL BE 3000-3500 FT ALONG AND EAST OF US 17, WITH
MORE SCATTERED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN VFR REMAINING PREDOMINANT INLAND, BUT COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN AT VFR FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR
CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT
ALSO COULD SEE LOW STATUS OR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING 20-40% PROBS FOR SUB-
VFR. THERE IS ALSO A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
A COASTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH A MODEST E TO SE FLOW OF 5-15KT DEVELOPING AROUND
IT ACROSS MOST ENC WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE FLOW BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN BUILDS
FURTHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE WARMER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35KT APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR 25KT+ WINDS, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET SOUTH THROUGH SURF CITY. FOR NOW, THIS ADVISORY
WILL JUST BE FOCUSED ON THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS. ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK.
SEAS OF 2-3FT THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-6FT BY
TONIGHT, THEN FURTHER BUILD TO 4-7FT ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST
SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, THERE
WILL BE A MODEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND.
LASTLY, WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MARINE FOG IMPACTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK: A POST-FRONTAL SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF 20-30KT
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, WATERS. LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN WITH
WINDS AND SEAS LAYING DOWN.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1210 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EASTERN NC HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH A LONG DURATION OF LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL. WHILE RAIN CHANCES EXIST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DO LITTLE TO
IMPROVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ON A LARGE SCALE. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW 35% WHILE WIND GUSTS REACH
NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
AND DECREASING GREENERY AS THE FALL SEASON PROGRESSES, WE WILL
SEE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL TRULY BE AND
HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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