334
FXUS62 KMHX 110539
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 12 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMER WITH GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ENC UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND,
WINDS WILL BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. ALONG THE
COAST, WINDS WILL BE 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT, CAA WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR, BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT
US FROM RADIATING AS WELL AS WE DID LAST NIGHT, SO LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER IN THE MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 12 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- COOL, DRY, AND BREEZY
THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SPEND THE DAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES, SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS. IT'LL FEEL PRETTY CHILLY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S PAIRED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH
INLAND AND 25-30 MPH AT THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 12 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE WEEK
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL TANK THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND THE WINDS GO LIGHT TO
CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. COASTAL PLAIN LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH THE OUTER BANKS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS
THE BETTER FORCING IS DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT SENDING
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. THERE ARE STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FROPA, AND AN EARLIER TREND WOULD
RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPS, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID 50S
AT THE COAST. THIS AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED, BUT THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
THESE TEMPS, PAIRED WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S. TUESDAY
WILL BEGIN OUR WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
50S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A WINDOW OF LLWS
CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE AS OF THIS UPDATE WITH
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS, GENERALLY 9 KFT AND ABOVE PUSHING OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SOME LLWS
CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST
(EWN/OAJ TERMINALS) THROUGH ABOUT 07-08Z. OTHERWISE ONGOING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN MO CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ENC. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS IS
ACROSS THE OBX WHERE A SHORTWAVE MAY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
CLOSER TO ABOUT 3-5 KFT. LIGHT SW'RLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A W TO
NW'RLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INCREASE ACROSS ENC
TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AND ALL TAF TERMINALS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE OBX POSSIBLE.
WINDS THEN EASE TONIGHT NEAR SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM AS THE HIGH SETS UP OVERHEAD
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH A LOW END
CHANCE AT SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ACROSS ENC AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WOULD RETURN ON
MONDAY REGARDLESS.
MARINE
AS OF 1:15 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS AND
GALES SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND PEAK
LATE TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER WATERS
(EXCEPT THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS). SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10
FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 4-7 FT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NW BY TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SEAS FOLLOWING SUIT. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, ALL WATERS WILL HAVE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
POTENT COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS UPDATE WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-
137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...OJC
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